Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
FIGURE 17.2.
Example of a decision tree with probabilistic outcomes, in which a stakeholder
believes two possible states exist and does not know which he faces. State 1 and State 2 are
two alternatives that are not controlled by the restorationist or the stakeholder, such as
whether a river will or will not flood in each of the next ten years. The neighboring stake-
holder, when she faces her decision, knows whether the restoration planner selected Plan A or
Plan B, but does not know whether State 1 or State 2 will be active and, therefore, does not
know which set of payoffs she faces. The dotted ovals represent this lack of perfect informa-
tion when one must make decisions. A risk-neutral stakeholder will weigh outcomes based
solely on probabilities, but a risk-averse stakeholder will shy away from those probabilistic out-
comes with the worst-case scenarios.
(an agricultural pest) colonizing agricultural lands from recently restored sites. Tar-
geted research confirmed that voles were abundant in recently restored sites, so owl
boxes are now routinely installed on new restoration sites because owls consume large
numbers of voles (Golet et al. 2009). We are also finding similar differences of opinion
between biologists and downstream agricultural water users for watershed restoration
projections utilizing beaver reintroduction in Utah.
When individuals are not sure what to do because they are unsure what outcome
is in their best interest, first moves or decisions can be highly influential. If a number
of individuals all face the same decision and no one is sure what to do, they will look
to others. If someone makes a decision, others will assume they must have had a rea-
son to do so and will become more likely to make the same decision. These processes
generate positive feedbacks. If, for example, a segment of a community is unsure of
how to respond to a new restoration plan, the first responses can generate momentum
and influence the decisions of other residents with similar interests.
