WHEAT IN BANGLADESH: YIELD GROWTH, PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE AND DETERMINANTS - Soybean and Wheat Crops: Growth, Fertilization, and Yield - page 219

5. C ONCLUSIONS
The present chapter provided an account of the growth performance of wheat in
Bangladesh over the past four decades preceded by a brief overview of the world wheat
outlook for the period 1961-2008. Then the study also examined productivity performance of
wheat farmers as well as its determinants at the farm-level using a survey data of 293
households collected from three wheat growing regions of Bangladesh, and discussed the
relevant constraints in realizing the full production potential. Results reveal that the area
under wheat crops increased six folds from only 132,000 ha in 1971 to 832,000 ha in 2000
but then declined sharply to 479,050 ha in 2006. Consequently, total production grew at an
annual rate of 6.9 % with corresponding growth in yield at a rate of 1.9 % per annum,
increasing from 0.86 t/ha to 1.5 t/ha over this 36 year period. Farm-level result reveals that
several factors significantly affect wheat productivity as well as technical efficiency. Also,
significant level of yield gap exists in wheat production of which 0.52 t/ha (yield Gap-II) can be
recovered by removing technical inefficiency.
In general, the environmental production conditions, within which the farmer operates,
are considered vital but are often arbitrarily omitted in productivity and efficiency studies,
resulting in biased estimates of the production parameters, efficiency scores and correlates of
inefficiency (Sherlund et al., 2002). Our results demonstrate that environmental production
has significant influence on productivity of wheat production in Bangladesh. Poor land type,
poor soil fertility and delay in sowing results in significant production loss. Technical
efficiency of wheat production in Bangladesh is estimated at 83%, implying that production
can be increased by 20% [(100-83)/83] through reallocation of resources alone. Farmers'
education, access to agricultural information, training and use of mechanical power significantly
improves technical efficiency, whereas a delay in sowing and fertilization, and poor sourcing of
seeds (i.e., from local market and/or neighbours) significantly reduces efficiency. Large farms
are more efficient relative to small and medium sized farms. Geography does matter.
Productivity of wheat is significantly lower in Jamalpur region. Nevertheless, scope to raise
wheat production remains limited with the existing set of varieties and technologies because
farmers have already adopted 100% of popular modern varieties and are also producing at a
high level of technical efficiency (83%).
Based on the results of our study, a number of specific policy implications can be drawn.
First, soil fertility improvement seems essential to raise productivity. This may be addressed
through adopting soil conservation practices and/or improving crop rotation practices (e.g.,
including soil health enhancing crops, such as pulses and oilseeds, in the system). Of the nine
total cropping patterns observed among the sample farmers, most followed rice-based
cropping. Only two patterns included jute in the system and none included any pulse or
oilseed crops, which is potentially highly detrimental to soil health in the long run. Second, is
the improvement in managerial practices (e.g., timely sowing and fertilizer application) and
the use of modern technology (e.g., mechanical power services). These can be addressed
through strengthening agricultural extension services and improvements in rural
infrastructure. Third, investment in education and training targeting the farming population
seems crucial. Fourth, is to improve existing research-extension link. Currently, new varieties
that are developed remain confined at the research stations. Dominance of only one variety at