Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
wheat production in Bangladesh is estimated at 83%, implying that production can be
increased by 20% [{(100-83)/83}*100] through reallocation of resources alone. Analysis
of the determinants of technical efficiency reveals that a host of managerial and socio-
economic factors significantly affect performance of wheat producers. Farmers' education,
access to agricultural information, training and use of mechanical power significantly
improves technical efficiency, whereas a delay in sowing and fertilization, and poor
sourcing of seeds (i.e., from local market and/or neighbours) significantly reduces
efficiency. Large farms are more efficient relative to small and medium sized farms.
Geography does matter. Productivity of wheat is significantly lower in Jamalpur region.
Policy implications include, soil fertility improvement through soil conservation and crop
rotation, improvement in managerial practices through extension services and adoption of
modern technologies, promotion of education and training targeted to farmers,
strengthening the research-extension link, and development of new varieties that have
higher yield potential and are also suitable for marginal areas.
Keywords:
Wheat yield, Technical efficiency, Environmental production conditions,
Managerial factors, Stochastic production frontier, Bangladesh
1.
I
NTRODUCTION
Wheat is considered as one of the main cereal crops in the world including Bangladesh.
Wheat has contributed more calories and protein to the world's diet than any other food crop
(Hanson et al., 1982). Also, the world trade in wheat exceeds trade in all other food grains
combined. Figure 1 presents the trends in area, production, yield and export of wheat in the
world over a 49 year period (1961-2008). The total harvested area of wheat increased slightly
from 202.2 million ha in 1961 to 224.9 million ha over the past five decades. However, total
production increased nearly three folds from 223.5 million ton in 1961 to 656.0 million ton in
2008, with corresponding increase in yield from 1.2 t/ha to 2.9 t/ha during the same period.
Trade in wheat also increased nearly 2.7 times from 43.8 million ton in 1961 to 117.5 million
ton in 2008. The lower panel of Figure 1 provides the average annual compound growth rate
estimates of world wheat area, production, yield and exports for each decade. It is clear from
the Figure 1 that, wheat area grew only during the first two decades (1961-1980) and then
recorded a decline in the 1980s and remained static since then. On the other hand, total
production grew faster during 1960s and 1970s and then slowed down thereafter. The growth
in yield level mirrors the growth in production, implying considerable technological progress
in wheat sector. Furthermore, it is interesting to see that the overall rate of growth in wheat
area, production, yield and export is the same estimated at 2% per annum over the past five
decades. However, there has been a sharp rise in wheat prices worldwide in recent years, with
a record rise in 2007/08, which was largely blamed on the production failure due to adverse
weather conditions worldwide, particularly in the southern hemisphere (i.e., Australia) (Allen,
2008). The trends presented in Figure 1, however, do not show existence of production failure
of recent years and consequent record rise in prices, implying that changing trading
conditions may also be responsible for the price hike instead of production failure alone.
However, it is encouraging to note that record wheat production is expected in the world in
year 2008/09 which will ease global supply of wheat (Allen, 2008). The reason for a surge in
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