FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT AND DON CONTAMINATION MANAGEMENT IN SOFT AND DURUM WHEAT CULTIVATION - Soybean and Wheat Crops: Growth, Fertilization, and Yield - page 149

5.6. Italy
Rossi et al. (2003) developed a dynamic simulation model for the risk of FHB in wheat.
The model calculates a daily infection risk based on sporulation, spore dispersal and infection
of the host tissue of the four main species that cause the disease ( G. zeae , F. culmorum ,
Gibberella. avenacea , Monographella nivalis ). Spore yield and dispersal are calculated as
functions of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, while the main factors affecting the
infection rate are temperature, wetness and the host growth stage. The model also calculates
the risk for mycotoxin production by G. zeae and F. culmorum in the infected head tissue.
The model was validated with data from different wheat growing areas in northern Italy from
2002 to 2004 using different soft and durum wheat cultivars. The validation showed a general
agreement between the model simulations and actual FHB epidemics and DON
contamination under different epidemiological conditions.
The interesting aspect of this model is that it was developed using the System Analysis
principles (Leffelaar, 1993) and unlike the others, this is the first known attempt to build a
mechanistic model of FHB development and DON contamination in wheat.
5.7. Switzerland
Musa et al. (2007) developed the internet-based decision support system FusaProg. The
model included in FusaProg takes into account the effects of cropping factors, previous crops,
soil and straw management, as well as the susceptibility of the wheat varieties to FHB. These
factors are used as driving variables and are combined with the prevailing weather conditions
and growth stage in order to predict the deoxynivalenol content of a specific wheat plot
before harvest. Hourly measured and forecasted data from 60 stations of a Swiss weather
service and private stations are transferred to a server where the data are automatically
analyzed for periods conducive for F. graminearum infection, according to weather rules
based on three parameters: daily mean temperature, sum of precipitation and daily mean of
the relative humidity. Weather conditions over the last three days as well as the weather
forecast are taken into account for the DON risk assessment. The FusaProg model assesses
the risk of DON contamination in three steps: i) a specific field is classified according to the
previous crop, the straw management, and the seedbed tillage; ii) the susceptibility of the
variety and the growth stage of the host is evaluated; iii) weather data are taken into account.
In 2006, the systems was evaluated by Swiss cantonal plant protection officers and in 2007,
the system was made available to Swiss wheat producers on the internet site
http://www.fusaprog.ch/.
5.8. The United States
In the United States, the Fusarium Head Blight Risk Assessment Tool was developed by
a cooperative research project at five universities. Using historical records of the weather and
observations of disease severity in field plots, logistic regression models were developed to
predict the probability of the mean disease severity exceeding 10%. Several empirical models
were developed that used weather data for seven days prior to flowering, seven or 10 days