PUB in practice: case studies - Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales - page 360

is revised continuously and several process algorithms are
currently being reconsidered, both for flow paths in the soil
and the surface water network.
The results from the S-HYPE model have been well
received and appreciated by end-users in the Swedish
water authorities and their consultancies for their WFD
work on water status. Daily and monthly time series can
be downloaded for free from http://vattenweb.smhi.se/ and
so far this web address has had (in 2011) more than 5000
unique visitors. New model versions are being launched
every second year. The model results are used for charac-
terisation of water bodies and the sources of pollution.
There is also a tool for impact assessment of remedies
scenarios where the S-HYPE model is coupled to a coastal
eutrophication model. Moreover, the S-HYPE model has
been used in various national assessments, e.g. estimation
of undisturbed conditions and climate change impacts on
water and related environmental variables. Although the
model system was originally developed for water quality
analysis, the system is currently also being adapted for a
national early warning service for floods and grass/forest
fire, and for the daily snow map of Sweden. On-going
interface development is mainly concerned with multi-
variable visualisation techniques along with uncertainty
estimates, and method transparency for end-users. The
latter was found to be crucial for implementation of model
results in practical water management.

in ungauged basins have been directly implemented in
water resources management projects.

Comparing the case studies from developed countries
with those from developing countries, one can conclude
that PUB activities in developed countries have a clear
societal driver, be it government, regulatory framework,
or industry. Apparently, this has provided the frame-
work and motivation for much of the progress that is
being made in PUB to benefit practice. However, there
does not seem to be such an organised effort in develop-
ing countries, and PUB studies there tend to be local-
ised, uncoordinated and often poorly funded and
appreciated. Consequently, there is much less scope for
accumulation of knowledge and experience.

In many developed countries, where there is much
more data available, standard approaches (both statis-
tical and process-based) are being used and the focus
on PUB is helping to generate further improvements.
Furthermore, there is much more widespread use and
trust in process-based methods as well. In contrast, in
most developing countries data is very scarce, and
many of them happen to be located in more arid parts
of the world as well.

This calls for more innovation and creativity, and the
use of non-standard approaches, as already demon-
strated by practitioners in several case studies reported
here, which presented a creative and non-standard
approach to predictions. Indeed, these may serve as
models for future efforts in both developed and
developing countries. The solution, it appears, is more
hydrology and process insights, and not less, and hope-
fully this topic can provide the framework and model
for any such innovation.

11.21 Summary of key points

The case study collection contains a great diversity of
PUB problems that is being tackled around the world. It
is clear PUB issues are cross-cutting there is much in

common in terms of the problems that are being faced
and also prediction methods adopted (both statistical and
process-based).

- The PUB initiative seems well positioned to advance

prediction practice in developed countries, rather than in
developing countries for three reasons: (i) the prediction
problems, especially in arid regions, are generally
harder, (ii) data limitations are much more dire in poorer
countries, and (iii) developing countries do not seem to
be well organised to address local problems themselves,
and to contribute to an accumulation of knowledge and
experience. These issues need to be addressed head on
in the future by the IAHS and other

The range of prediction problems addressed in the case
studies covers the entire spectrum of runoff signatures in
this topic. There is much cross-fertilisation across these
time scales of variability.

From the case studies it became evident that PUB has
clear societal relevance, with at least seven case studies
where the authors reported that their runoff predictions

international

organisations.