Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
11 PUB in practice: case studies
H. H. G. Savenije and M. Sivapalan
11.1 Predictions in Ungauged Basins
in a societal context
This topic has so far presented the outcomes of a synthesis
of thousands of studies from around the world connected to
predictions in ungauged basins. It involved comparative
assessment of several prediction methods, within a holistic
framework, organised around processes, places and scales.
This synthesis has helped to identify gaps in knowledge,
understanding and predictive capability, and opportunities
to make further improvements. To a large extent, the topic
has so far focused on the scientific process.
However, the practice of PUB is also a social process, as
well as a scientific process. What is the role of PUB in a
societal context? How is PUB being practiced now? How
do the methods being used presently, and their perform-
ance, measure up against the ideals that emerge from this
topic? How will the outcomes of this synthesis advance
hydrological predictions in the future?
Clearly, PUB is also a practical issue; it involves making
day-to-day predictions and decisions in real places and
affecting real people, undertaken by practitioners with a
wide range of training and experience, and subject to their
own strengths and limitations. Hydrologists are confronted
with many challenges, which can be social and political, as
well as scientific and technological. What are the difficul-
ties faced by practitioners, on both the social and scientific
fronts, and how can they be overcome?
The objective of this chapter is to let a representative
cross-section of practitioners, drawn from several regions of
the world, reflect on their experiences through short illus-
trations of the approaches they have adopted to address a
PUB problem. The chosen case studies cover the full range
of runoff predictions in ungauged basins, using a wide
range of methods, in places spread across broad climatic
and geographic gradients. We have undertaken a limited
assessment of PUB practice seen in the case studies from
two perspectives: (i) what lessons can be learned from the
experiences of the case studies towards strengthening the
outcomes of the synthesis, and (ii) how can the outcomes
of the synthesis help advance the practice of PUB globally?
Scope of the comparative assessment
This chapter presents 19 real-world case studies, sufficient
to represent the diversity of PUB applications around the
world, but perhaps not numerous enough to be viewed as a
truly scientific study.
The study authors were asked to reflect on how they
addressed a PUB problem, independent of and uninflu-
enced by the work on this topic, so as to provide a contrast
between what is being practiced now and what could
ideally be possible.
The case studies were chosen to be as representative of
all geographic and climatic regions of the world as pos-
sible, including countries representing both the developed
and the developing world (
Table 11.1
,
Figure 11.1
).
A diversity of prediction problems was aimed for,
involving one or more of the signatures of runoff variabil-
ity covered in this topic (i.e., annual runoff, seasonal run-
off, flow duration curve (FDC), low flows and floods).
Importantly, the case study authors were specifically
asked to articulate the specific societal relevance and/or
driver for the prediction problem that they tackled.
The case study descriptions are not meant to be compre-
hensive, and are only meant to provide an overview of the
specific prediction problem, the methods used, the various
limitations, and outcomes of the study, including impact on
society. Readers interested in further details can find them
in the references cited.
Summary of the case studies
The case studies revealed the great diversity of PUB prob-
lems being tackled in different parts of the world, ranging
from local problems to regional and national problems.
PUB issues are cross-cutting
-
there is much in common
in terms of the problems faced and the prediction methods
adopted between countries as different as China, Austria
and Zimbabwe. A diversity of prediction methods are
being used, both statistical and process-based.
The range of prediction problems being addressed
covers the entire spectrum of runoff variability covered in
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