The Twenty-first Century Agricultural Land Rush - The Oxford Topic of Food, Politics, and Society - page 825

wheatproductionsince1980,contributingtoanetincreaseincommoditypricesonthe
orderof5percent(Lobelletal.2011).Amoresubstantialefectofclimatechangeonthe
food system in the near term, however, has resulted from the promotion of biofuels as
a climate change mitigation strategy. Here, high oil prices and concerns about the cli-
matic effects of carbon emissions from fossil fuels were funneled by agribusiness lobbies
into policies supporting the development of agricultural crops as “biofuels.” While the
contribution of biofuels to reducing emissions is dubious (Pimentel and Burgess, this
volume;Kanter2011),impactsofbiofuelproductiononthefoodsystemaresubstantial.
Expansion of biofuels production strains food crop markets while increasing demand
foragriculturalland.Insomecases,biofuelproductionremovesacreagefromfoodcrop
production and increases demand for fuel crops that are also important food and feed
crops,suchascornandsoy(HeadeyandFan2008;Mitchell2008).Cornethanolpro-
duction, in particular, has been singled out as a primary driver of rising food prices dur-
ingthelate2000s(Lagiet al.2011).Biofuelssubstituteforfossilfuels,sobiofuelmarkets
respond directly to changes in oil prices. The expansion of biofuel production thus com-
bineswiththeinancializationofcommoditiesmarketstolinkfoodpricesevermore
closelytothevicissitudesoftheenergymarket(Timmer2010,6),inadditiontoincreas-
ing demand pressure on food crops and land.
hesebackgroundprocessesofinancializationandspeculation,declininginvestment
and low productivity growth in agriculture, climate change, and the expansion of biofu-
els production contributed to the increasing interconnectedness of the financial system,
the food system, and the global climate such that a combination of weather and financial
shocksin2006-2007pushedthefoodsystemintofull-blowncrisis.Poorweathercondi-
tions during this period resulted in a shortfall in the wheat supply.9 Coinciding with the
collapse of the US housing bubble, which created an investment vacuum driving capital
into commodities and other markets, the wheat shortfall triggered speculative invest-
mentthatbegantodrivewheatpricesquicklyupwardinMay2007,followedlaterinthe
year by corn prices under additional pressure from biofuel production.10Indiaexpe-
riencedapoorwheatharvestin2007,similartootherpartsoftheworld,andthehigh
worldwheatpricesmadeitcostlytomakeuptheshortfallwithimports.Asaresult,India
decided to retain a larger share of its rice production for domestic consumption through
the imposition of export restrictions. Other rice-exporting countries began to discuss
restrictions as well, and importing countries, finding themselves in a vulnerable posi-
tion, quickly moved to increase domestic stockpiles, contributing to a surge in demand
thatsentricepricesskyrocketing.Whilegrainpriceslaterdeclinedfromtheir2007-2008
peak,theyhaveremainedextremelyvolatile,spikingagainin2010-2011,whentheFAO
FoodPriceIndexreacheditshighestlevelever(FAO2011).11
he2007-2008foodcrisisthusemergedinarticulationwithinancialandclimate
crises as the concrete manifestations of longer-term trends in the global political econ-
omy.Takentogether,thesetrendsarerepresentativeofafundamentalshitsuchthat
“cheapfood”and“cheapenergy,”thefoundationalinputsofthepost-WorldWarIIeco-
nomicorder,cannolongerbeguaranteed(Araghi2009;Moore2010).he2007-2008
foodcrisiswasacriticaleventthatalteredactors'perceptionsoftheirstructuralcontext,