Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
∑
N
∑
N
∑
M
t
t
0
.2 When voters can engage
in side payments, the final outcome depends on the net benefits from the proposition
across the board. Voters who strongly support the passing of the proposition may be
ready to compensate opponents in order to obtain their vote. One example is when the
French government erected restrictions on GM crops in order to mute environmental
resistance to nuclear power (Stratfor, 2011).
The literature on bureaucratic decision making (Rausser, Swinnen, and Zusman,
2011) suggests that their decisions reflect the weighted sum of perceived net benefits of
interest groups, which is consistent with the framework presented here. However, it is
important to emphasize the evolutionary nature of political decision making, because
perceived net benefits change over time. Thus,
b
i
t
, which is the perceived net benefit to
group
j
of individual
i
at time
t
, is a stock variable and is modified by
NI
t
, which is the
new information made available during time period
t
. Thus, the total stock of informa-
tion available in period
t
is the sum of the stock of information in period
t-1
plus the
additional information made available in time period
t
, and the equation of motion is
bb bNI
ij
B
=
w b
>
net benefits are positive, that is,
i
ij
ij
=
1
=
1
=
1
i
i
j
=+
(
)
−1
∆
. Changes in perception of benefits from the technology resulting
from new information will affect voting patterns over time.
Proposition 37 in California is a good example of how perceptions and voting behav-
ior can evolve over time. The proposition, if passed, would have required labeling of
GM contents in all food products sold in California. Results from early polls (May
2012) showed initial support as high as 80 percent for the proposition, yet, in the end,
it was defeated in November 2012 with only 46% of the voters supporting it. Zilberman
et al. (2014) documents the evolution of the debate. The large early support for the prop-
osition stemmed from the conception that GM crops were bad for health and the pubic
had the right to full information. Opponents of the proposition pointed out that a vol-
untary labeling system already exists. For example, companies may choose to verify and
label a product as “GM-free”; this option, in combination with organic food standards,
effectively serves as a regulated “GM-free” labeling system. Opponents also presented
results of studies from major national academies of science of various countries, find-
ing that genetically modified GM foods are at least as safe as conventional foods. The
publicity of such information lent to a reduction in support for the proposition. More
decisively, the proposition was ultimately defeated when, during the final stages of the
campaign, estimates were published of the increase in food prices for consumers likely
to result from the costs of labeling all food products. In the end, it seems that voters gave
the price effect a greater weight than other considerations. Once that information was
introduced to the public and was considered reliable by the public, their voting prefer-
ences changed.
t
t
t
ij
Applications and Extensions of the Basic Voting Model
The policy regime in place within a country can be considered the cumulative
outcome of many “votes” by different groups over a series of different policy
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