Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 5
Operational Oil Spill Modelling:
From Science to Engineering Applications
in the Presence of Uncertainty
Ben R. Hodges, Alejandro Orfila, Juan M. Sayol and Xianlong Hou
Abstract
Quantifying uncertainties in real-time operational oil spill forecasts
remains an outstanding problem, but one that should be solvable with present sci-
ence and technology. Uncertainties arise from the salient characteristics of oil spill
models, hydrodynamic models, and wind forecast systems, which are affected by
choices of modelling parameters. Presented and discussed are: (1) a systems-level
approach for producing a range of oil spill forecasts, (2) a methodology for inte-
grating probability estimates within oil spill models, and (3) a multi-model system
for updating forecasts. These technologies provide the next steps for the efficient
operational modelling required for real-time mitigation and crisis management for
oil spills at sea.
5.1 Introduction
Modelling of oil spills on the water's surface has reached an important milestone.
We believe the next major advance for improving operational oil spill forecasts is by
addressing the accumulation of uncertainty in the wind, wave, and current models. In
this chapter, we proposemodelling approaches for real-time evaluation of uncertainty
in oil spill trajectorymodels and explore the underlying sources and analysesmethods
for uncertainty. Our objective is to stimulate development of quantitative model
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