Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
17.1
Introduction
This chapter is to reflect Professor Walter Isard's scientific reasoning and
contributions to formulating spatial models for urban and regional systems and to
shed light on formulating a framework for spatial modeling for future cities. We
need alternative spatial models for cities and regions more than ever now in light of
rapidly changing socio-economic and environmental challenges we have been
confronted with and more to face in the near future. Among others, I would identify
the following four major recent developments that force us to consider alternative
spatial models:
(a) Rapid growth of Global Urbanization
(b) Unlimited computing Capability
(c) Pervasive use of instantly available Information and Communication Tools
(d) Shift from Personal to Communal Ownership of Automobiles
Thus, the goal of this chapter is to shed light on developing a framework for
alternative spatial models for future cities in the same spirit as what Isard advocated
more than a half century ago (Isard
1956
,
1960
), and yet still inspiring us to
undertake these changes and challenges.
17.2
Implications of Global Urbanization on Spatial Modeling
17.2.1 Resources
According to the United Nations (
2011
), more than half of the world's population
lived in urban areas in 2008 and the level of urbanization is expected to rise from
52 % (3.6 billion) in 2011 to 67 % (6.3 billion) in 2050.
1
The alarming rapid
urbanization trend alerts to urban and regional scientists for searching for new ways
to accommodate additional 2.7 billion urban populations by 2050. To accommodate
the additional urban population, either existing cities need to be expanded or new
cities have to be created, equivalent to 2,700 new cities of one million population.
A critical question arises. How can we provide much needed resources to
accommodate the additional urban population? The resources needed to accommo-
date these new urban inhabitants would be enormous. For example, providing
enough water for 2.7 billion urban residents, we would need about 10 of Hoover
Dam capacity
2
and need to supply about 20,000 billion kWh of electricity that is
equivalent to about 4,500 of Hoover Dam power generating capacity.
3
1
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/Urban-Rural-Population.htm
. Accessed on May 1, 2013.
2
Assuming 50 gal are needed for gallons of water per day for drinking, cooking, bathing, and
watering their yard, 2.7 billion people would consume about 50 billion gallons of water per year.
See
http://www.pacinst.org/reports/water_fact_sheet/for
more information about water consump-
tion. Hoover Dam's capacity is reported to be about 5 billion gallons per year. See
http://en.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_Dam
for Dam's capacity related information.
3
Assume 20 kWh are needed for per person per day, which is less than the US average, but a bit
higher than the EU average. See URLs below for detailed information
http://en.wikipedia.org/
