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labor and capital for 90071. 12 We use the 90071 sectoral wage bill estimates to
translate the $1.9 m. labor productivity loss into sector-specific shocks.
We model BI as deterioration in industry-specific, all-input-using technical
efficiency. As discussed in the preceding paragraph, we use BLS and LA-DYN
data to estimate output by sector for zip code 90071. BI results in 3 days of lost
output in 90071. We translate this to sector-specific productivity losses for LA
County as a whole based on industry-specific 90071 shares in LA County output by
industry.
We model the $4.0 m in direct medical expenditure as an expansion in final
demand for medical services. The medical resources used to treat the victims of the
chlorine attack form part of the attack's economic costs. To make this explicit, we
require that the medical spending be financed via a decrease in general government
consumption spending.
16.4.2 Behavioral Effects
Our estimates of the behavioral inputs to the economic model are based on results
from a nationwide survey in which 624 people participated. Our approach to hazard
scenario construction and survey design was consistent with well-documented
methods of querying people about perceived risk and risk-related behaviors
(Fischhoff et al. 1978 ; Slovic 1987 ; Burns and Slovic 2010 ; Giesecke
et al. 2012 ). Respondents were drawn from a panel developed by Decision Research
in 2008 based on funding from the National Science Foundation. 13 Panelists were
recruited online by a number of means (e.g., Google ads) to gather a diverse
assortment of Americans. We statistically reweighted our sample using
U.S. Census data to better reflect the U.S. population. In this paper we focus on
the sub-group of panelists who reviewed a scenario with 182 chlorine deaths to
invite comparisons of the economic impacts with the RDD attack, which had a
similar number of deaths. The sample size for this group was 286.
Respondents were invited to participate and were given 1 week to review our
chlorine scenario and answer our online survey. 14 Prior to reading the scenario
respondents were asked their perceptions regarding the likelihood and severity of
such an attack during the next 12 months. They then read a 500 word news article
with headline “
Chlorine Bomb Rocks Financial District of Los Angeles!
182 Dead and Hundreds Potentially Exposed to Poison Gas as Mayor Requests
Downtown to Seek Shelter for Hours”.
The article included a statement by the
Mayor describing the details of the attack, the fact that the contaminated area had
12 Notes 12 and 13 of Giesecke et al . ( 2012 ) estimate sector-specific values for output and
payments to labor and capital for 90071.
13 The format for describing the survey results here conforms very closely with Giesecke
et al. ( 2012 ) to facilitate behavioral comparison between the chlorine and RDD attacks.
14 Available at http://www.decisionresearch.org/pdf/ChorineAttackAug2012.pdf
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