Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 11.2
Differences in
share of population by
cohort between baseline
and population aging
Scenario (unit: %)
2006
2010
2015
2020
Seoul metropolitan area
0-9
0.1
0.0
1.5
3.1
10-19
0.2
0.7
0.4
1.1
20-29
0.0
0.0
0.8
2.3
0.1
0.6
0.9
1.2
30-39
40-49
0.3
2.1
5.0
8.3
50-59
0.3
1.7
3.0
2.1
60+
0.0
0.3
1.0
3.1
Rest of Korea
0-9
0.2
0.4
0.7
2.0
10-19
0.3
1.3
0.3
0.4
20-29
0.1
0.3
1.6
3.2
30-39
0.1
0.6
1.0
1.4
40-49
0.5
2.1
4.9
8.1
50-59
0.3
1.2
2.2
1.1
60+
0.1
0.3
1.1
3.6
Note
: Difference share
¼
(Population aging scenario—baseline)
demographics. In the counterfactual scenario that population aging continues,
composition of the population by age cohort continues along the projections
provided by the National Statistical Office of Korea so as to reflect the demographic
effect of population aging for future generations (see Table
11.2
). Roughly, the
scenario has a lower population share of the 20-59 age cohort by 0.5 % point on
average and a higher share of the 60+ age cohort by 1 % point compared to the
baseline.
If the shares of the age cohort 20-49 decrease for both regions, according to the
population aging for 15 years, there will be a sharp downturn in the economy, an
outcome that is similar to traditional intuition and work. The direct impact of the
population aging on the economies is a reduction in the labor supply. Total labor
supply would decline by 3.01 % on a 15-year average compared with the baseline,
as shown in Table
11.3
. Government revenues are expected to drop by 1.98 %. In
addition, the population aging has a negative effect on the GDP by
2.37 % on
average;
0.69 % in the period 2006-2010,
1.90 % in the period 2011-2015, and
3.55 % in the period 2016-2020. The negative effects on the GDP tend to become
more severe over the period of 15 years at an increasing rate. The population aging
could generate negative impacts on the economic growth of both the SMA and
ROK regions, but it seems to pose a greater threat to the SMA economy. The growth
rate of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) of the SMA is
2.78 % on average,
which is lower than that of ROK by 0.74 % point. The reason for this difference is
that the ROK has already attained higher population shares of over 60s than the
SMA under the baseline: the level of the ROK is larger than that of the SMA by
0.1 ~ 0.6 % point.
