Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
Ageing only
0.6% immigration
1.2% immigration
1.5% immigration
1.20
1.10
1.00
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.5%
Fig. 11.10
Per Capita Chicago gross regional product
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.5%
Fig. 11.11
Impact of immigration on the social security tax rate
significant benefits generated from immigration. However, on closer look, the
benefit for social security system is reversed when the immigrants start to retire.
After 2050, the social security tax rate starts to increase and eventually converges to
around 9 %, higher than the rate expected under no immigration. This result reveals
that in the longer run, immigration could generate a different impact; as immigrants
age, like everyone else, a sustained policy of immigration has little long-run impact
on the age structure of the population, and thus its benefit declines. Another
important policy implication, especially for local government, arises from the
different stance on immigration between federal and local governments. In
Scenarios 2 and 3, only the Chicago local government optimistically attracts
more immigrants than the national average. However, the social security tax rate
