Geoscience Reference
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any, control over its unemployment rate, wages, and prices because of mobile
factors of production.
The experience of the Washington economy is largely consistent with the
economic base theory of regional economic growth as posited by North and
Tiebout. Notwithstanding the theory's limitations, it is difficult to imagine
understanding economic and demographic growth in Washington—or any
other region in the United States for that matter—without first considering the
performance of its economic base, whether it is embodied in agricultural
commodities, manufactured goods, tourism, information technologies, producer
services, military bases, or the income of retirees.
The case study also suggests why demand-oriented models remain more
popular than supply-side models for practical applications, such as forecasting
and impact analysis. This does not mean that supply considerations, whether
they pertain to timber harvest restrictions, natural and cultural amenities, the
educational attainment of the workforce, or infrastructure, are unimportant.
What the case study does imply is that models that attempt to portray production
costs, comparative advantage, and investment decision-making may be based on
the unfounded assumption that regions have an inelastic supply of labor and
capital and are therefore not price-takers.
Finally, this study points out some limitations of regional economic policies.
Washington's expansions and contractions vividly demonstrate that, because of
the mobility of labor, job growth per se has little or no impact on the regional
unemployment rate or per capita income in the long run.
References
Andrews R (1953) The mechanics of the urban economic base: historical development of the
base concept. Land Econ 29:161-67
Beyers WB, Baldwin M, Lin T, others (2010) 2007 Washington input-output model. Washington
State Office of Financial Management
Birch DL (1988) Employment growth in Washington State. Washington State Department of
Trade and Economic Development
Bourque PJ, Conway RS Jr (1977) The 1972 Washington input-output study. Graduate School of
Business Administration, University of Washington
Bourque PJ, Weeks EE (1969) Detailed input-output tables for Washington State, 1963. Washington
Agricultural Experiment Station, College of Agriculture, Washington State University
Chase RA, Bourque PJ, Conway RS Jr (1993) Washington state input-output study, 1987.
Washington State Office of Financial Management
Conway RS Jr (1983) Applications of the Washington projection and simulation model. In:
Dutta M, Hartline JC, Loeb PD (eds) Essays in regional economic studies. The Acorn Press,
Durham, NC, pp 105-115
Conway RS Jr (1977) The Hawaii population and economic forecasting model. Hawaii Depart-
ment of Planning and Economic Development
Conway RS Jr (1989) Import substitution program evaluation. Northwest Area Foundation
Conway RS Jr (1990) The Washington projection and simulation model: a regional interindustry
econometric model. Int Reg Sci Rev 13:141-165
