Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 8.2
Composition of
Washington exports
(percent)
1963
1972
1987
1997
2007
U.S. exports
62.1
67.7
61.8
60.1
60.4
Foreign exports
9.7
18.1
28.6
32.8
33.0
Federal government sales
28.2
14.2
9.6
7.1
6.6
Total exports
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Resources
6.0
5.0
2.2
1.6
3.3
Manufacturing
84.1
70.6
64.7
53.9
48.8
Nonmanufacturing
9.9
24.4
33.2
44.4
47.9
Total exports
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source
: Washington input-output tables
The import-output ratio has fluctuated more than the export-output ratio, but it
has shown no overall tendency to fall over time. If anything, the import-output ratio
appears to be rising, indicating a declining propensity to purchase locally produced
goods and services. This observation does not totally rule out the possibility of
import substitution. It may be that, while import substitution is taking place in parts
of the economy, it is being offset by increased importing elsewhere.
It should be noted, however, that import substitution as an economic develop-
ment strategy in developing countries as well as regions of the United States has
met with limited success (Conway
1989
). Regional markets are often too small to
make import substitution a viable option. In general, the trend in regional produc-
tion seems to be moving toward greater specialization and away from increased
self-sufficiency.
The constancy of the export-output ratio does not imply that there has been no
significant change in Washington's exports. Two distinct trends are apparent
(Table
8.2
). The first is the increasing reliance on foreign markets. Foreign exports
as a share of total exports (including sales to the federal government) rose from
9.7 % in 1963 to 33.0 % in 2007. Figures show that, on a per capita basis,
Washington foreign exports are among the highest in the nation. Moreover, the
rapid expansion of international trade is the principal reason why Washington has
grown faster than the United States since 1960, according to an analysis with the
Washington Projection and Simulation Model (Conway
1997
).
3
The second trend is a shift of exports to services. In 2007, nonmanufacturing
industries accounted for 47.9 % of Washington exports, nearly five times the share
in 1963. While these numbers tend to overstate the importance of services, since a
significant portion of service exports are trade and transportation margins
associated with commodity exports, they do indicate that the state's economic
3
Originally developed in 1977, the Washington Projection and Simulation Model (WPSM) is an
interindustry econometric model designed for regional forecasting and analysis (Conway
1983
,
1990
). A similar model commissioned by the state of Hawaii in 1977 is still in use today (Conway
1977
). In 1989, a prototype of the Chicago Regional Econometric Input-Output Model (CREIM)
was constructed following WPSM's specification (Conway et al.
1989
).
