Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
(cf. Figure 1.3) and were influenced by French planning ideas. For the preparation
of the ESDP, trend scenarios were prepared under the French presidency in 1995,
which are discussed in Chapter 5. Following the publication of the ESDP, which
left many open questions on how agreement can be reached on the visualisation of
spatial development policy in informal planning processes, the interest in scenario-
building at European level continues, as one of the ESPON projects on 'spatial
scenarios and orientations towards the ESDP and the Cohesion policy'
(www.espon.eu) demonstrates. A notable example of an attempt to translate the
concept of polycentricity as promoted in the ESDP into cartographic representa-
tions is a study by the Conference of Peripheral and Maritime Regions of Europe
(CPMR, 2003). Two scenarios were elaborated as part of the project: one
'straight-line' (or prospective) scenario, which would quickly lead to a gradual
expansion of the 'Pentagon'
6
and overall concentration and polarisation of the
central area of Europe, and one proactive (or 'voluntarist') scenario, which would
require the implementation of specific public policies in favour of polycentric devel-
opment over the next twenty or thirty years (see Figure 3.5).
The work on the ESDP trend scenarios under the French presidency in 1995
also prompted EU member states to experiment with this technique within their
nation-states. The influence of EU policy on spatial planning is evident in these
national approaches. The French national planning agency, DATAR, which initiated
the work on the ESDP trend scenarios, has since proposed four scenarios for
France in the year 2020 (DATAR, 2002). The scenarios range from unhindered
continuation of current trends (described as the 'The Shattered Archipelago' (cf.
Figure 3.6)) to a policy scenario called 'The Networked Polycentrality', which has
subsequently been operationalised as a model for the future spatial development of
France (see Plate 3). Based on proposals of the French presidency to the CSD in
2000, the document further considers the European dimension of French spatial
planning and, as a reaction to the 'Pentagon' proposed in the ESDP, suggests a
'tentative spatial definition of peripheral Global Integration Zones (GIZs)' for the
European territory (cf. Figure 3.9).
Stiens (2004a) has pointed out that in Germany spatial prognoses have
declined in significance since the mid-1970s whereas scenarios have gained in
importance, especially since the preparation of the German contribution to the
ESDP trend scenarios. In preparation for a review of the spatial
Leitbilder
, four
long-term spatial scenarios for the German territory up to the year 2040 have been
produced (cf. Figure 3.7).
Besides these 'official' scenarios produced by public administrations, there
have over the years been many proposals by academics on the spatial future of the
EU territory. These scenarios aim to provoke discussion and debate by giving an
often extreme view of the future spatial structure (cf. Kunzmann, 1998a; Reclus,
