Geology Reference
In-Depth Information
c. Expected sea level change by 2100.
double in amount at a given rate of growth (for an
investment it is compound interest). It is:
DT = 70/GR
The AR4 Synthesis Report is online with other Assess-
ment Reports at
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/
assessments-reports.htm.
where DT is Doubling Time in years and GR is
annual Growth Rate in percent. For example,
DT = 70/10 = 7 years (to double your money
at 10% GR).
The exponential growth equation is more com-
plicated than this; however, this simplified version
works for small percentages. Concern over our lack of
appreciation for exponential growth has prompted
some to alert us to potential problems, particularly
with respect to finite resources and population
(Bartlett, 2004).
PART D. LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOK: A SCENARIO
There are advantages to being aware of possible futures
(e.g., for selection of financial investments or planning
for sustainability). In either case, we are concerned
about quality of life—beginning with our own and that
of our children. But we also recognize that the quality of
life of others impacts us. Our approaches to forecasting
include intuition, trend extrapolation, system analysis
with models/games, Delphi forecasts, and scenarios. In
this short exercise you construct a scenario, a descrip-
tion of a possible future, viewed from the future looking
back on what has happened to reach that future.
In addition to drawing on what you have learned
from your course to this point (geologic hazards, pol-
lution, geologic and other resource availability,
regional planning, climate change), there are other
sources of information you should consider. Although
many sources are neutral in their outlook, some are
optimistic (cornucopian) and others are pessimistic or
maybe geologically realistic. Several useful references
include Bartlett, 2004; Beckwith, 1986; Deffeyes, 2001;
Diamond, 2005; IPCC, 2001 and 2007; Kahn and Wiener,
1967; Lapp, 1973; Meadows et al., 1972; Schwartz, 1991;
Simon, 1990; Smil, 1972; and UN Population Fund,
1999. Other references include the journal of the World
Future Society (the Futurist), annual State of the World
topics from the World Watch Institute, and Eco-Econ-
omy Updates and Plan B 3.0 (Brown, 2008) from the
Earth Policy Institute (
http://www.earth-policy.org
)
.
There are two simple relationships that should be
kept in mind when seeking to understand the future.
One is a simplified quality-of-life relationship that was
suggested by a former head of the USGS (McKelvey,
1972). It is:
QUESTIONS 18, PART D
1.
Using at least one of the references in the Introduction to
Part D, prepare a
one-page scenario
describing the next 50
years. Write it as if the next 50 years have already passed.
Consider starting your scenario with, "The last 50 years have
produced a few surprises ..." or "The year is 20XX and it is a
fine day in " or as a letter to a former classmate, "I am
now years old and things have changed since we were
in class 50 years ago." You should focus on changes in energy
and mineral resources, pollution, and quality of life, plus any
unusual natural disaster events. You might want to include a
few related social, economic, and political events. Unless
your instructor suggests otherwise, you may take any view-
point, optimistic/pessimistic, sustainable/unsustainable, etc.
2.
Using the doubling time equation, the population growth
rate of 1 percent (expected in 2015), and your ideas of how
the world is progressing, answer the following.
a.
Considering the trends in population and the availabil-
ity of resources (including fossil fuels), what is your best
guess for the
maximum human population
on Earth?
b. This maximum human population will occur in the
year
.
c.
The major
factor(s) that will end population grozvth
will be
(consider the Introduction to Section IV and any changes
that you expect in population, resources, biodiversity,
and global climate).
Q = (REI)/P
where Q is the quality of Life; R is for Resources,
E is for Energy; I is for ingenuity (our knowl-
edge and technology); and P is the population
that must share in the REI.
This is not a perfect expression for the Q of L; for
some people "stuff" and/ or "$" are the most important,
for others it is friends, family, and making a contribu-
tion to society.
The other relationship is the expression for Dou-
bling Time with exponential growth. This describes
the time it takes for an investment or other process to
d.
How will we achieve sustainability for humans on
Earth?
