Climate Change Impacts On The Northwestern Andean (NOA) and Western (Cuyo) Andean Regions of Argentina - Impact of Global Changes on Mountains: Responses and Adaptation - page 472

Table 21.2. Replication of major countrywide vulnerabilities to climate change in mountain-
related ecoregions in NOA and Cuyo regions.

Climate effect Vulnerability

NOA Cuyo

Increase in mean yearly rainfall during
the 20th century

Yes — Puna , Yungas and
the Hill and Valley
Scrubland

Yes —both Scrublands

Increase in the frequency of extreme
rainfall events

No No

No

Increase in air temperature Yes —High Andes

(glacier retraction)

Increase in the frequency of heat waves Yes —heavily-built cities Yes —heavily-built

cities

Decrease in river fl ow regime No Yes —High Andes

(glacier retraction)

Increase in river fl ow variability and in
risk of frequent drought spells [1]

Yes No

On the degree of social vulnerability [2] Low to high Low to medium
Table elaborated on the basis of information contained in RA (2007). [1] (Barros and Kullock
2006). [2] Social vulnerability as measured with an index built with variables refl ecting
demographic, economic and welfare conditions sensitive to either withstand or avoid damages
under disaster events (Natenzon et al. 2006).

Table 21.3. Subjective assessment of the probability that national impacts of climate change
refl ected on the NOA and Cuyo regions in the interval 2020-2040.

Impact NOA Cuyo Drivers

likely unlikely

Increase in plant water stress,
and its concomitant impact
on biodiversity, ecosystem
productivity and agricultural
production.

Increased evapotranspiration
driven by increasing air
temperatures.

unlikely likely Decrease in precipitation (rain
and snow) over the Andean
Ridge between parallels 30° S
and 36° S.
Persistent retreat of the Andean
glaciers, particularly to the south
of parallel 30° S.
Increase in the altitude of the
0°C-isotherm south to parallel
30° S.
Table elaborated on the basis of information contained in RA (2007). In one of the probability
scales used by the IPCC in its publications, a likely event is one with >66% chance of occurring,
while an unlikely event is one with a <33% chance (Bates et al. 2008).

Decrease in the fl ows of major
regional rivers, which translates
into decreases in agricultural
production, electricity
hydrogeneration, and urban
quality of life.