Geoscience Reference
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economic development. The problem, however, is that existing narratives
and projections are fraught with uncertainties.
Unfortunately, in the security establishments of South Asia, there
has been a lack of understanding the roles that snow and glaciers play in
sustaining water fl ows in the Himalayan rivers. The knowledge defi cit about
high altitude snowfi elds and valley glaciers and their role in sustaining
low fl ows during post and pre-monsoon periods (shoulder months) has
hampered the ability of security experts as well as the water bureaucracy
to gauge and grapple with the full ramifi cations of rising water stress in
the Indus Basin.
If irregular challenges caused by climate change go unchecked, they
could lead to large scale regional confl icts as countries compete for dwindling
water resources. Each South Asian country should design and carry out
its own assessment of glacier and monsoon changes, with international
support, not direction. Both India and Pakistan have knowledgeable leaders
who can forge relationships with decision makers, but there aren't enough
decisionmakers in either country who are suffi ciently versed in these
issues. The critical mass suffi cient to characterize the multiple impacts of
climate change on glaciers and communicate them to decision-makers is
signifi cantly lacking. Capacity building, as suggested by Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton as the 'fi rst stream' of US water strategy, is therefore a critical
issue in the region and needs to be addressed as a priority. We will help to
support knowledge action networks which can create a two-way fl ow of
information, knowledge and methods between local communities, opinion
leaders, scientists and decision-makers, and their regional, national and
global counterparts. The function of this networks includes acquiring and
disseminating knowledge about climate change. Knowledge networks can
appeal to the UN for assistance in measuring, monitoring, and modeling
glacier changes.
Conclusion
The compounding impacts of regional climate warming, monsoonal rainfall
variability and rising emissions of black carbon aerosols are accelerating the
melt of ice and reducing the accumulations of snow on these glaciers, leading
to a signifi cant loss of ice mass over large portions of mountain regions.
Continued widespread melting of glaciers during the coming years will
lead to fl oods/water shortages, declining crop yields and habitats of local
communities. Thus far, conclusions are being made on limited data coming
from satellite imageries and fi eld research on a few selected glaciers, but
the extreme conditions found in the region make fi eld research expensive,
time-intensive, dangerous and physically challenging.
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