Future Sustainability Challenges in Hindu Kush-Himalaya - Impact of Global Changes on Mountains: Responses and Adaptation - page 243

century. Similarly, the Yangtze and Brahmaputra will lose about 7 to 14%
of the annual fl ow due to the same reason (SFG 2010). China and India will
face 30-50% drop in wheat and rice yield by 2050 while demand for food
grains will go up by at least 20%. To accommodate this increased demand,
an estimated 200-300 million tons of wheat and rice is required in China
and India (SFG 2010).
Hindu Kush-Himalaya is prone to more natural disasters
The ecologically fragile HKH is highly susceptible to natural disasters and
impacts are already evident, with an increasing trend in natural disasters
(Fig. 10.12). Over the past two decades there have been over 230,000 deaths
and about US$ 45 billion in damage (World Bank 2008). Frequency of
landslides, fl ash fl oods, debris fl ows, etc., are projected to increase in the
uplands (300-3000 m), and fl uvial and coastal fl ooding below 300 m (Xu and
Rana 2005). The HKH region is outpacing others for fl ood and earthquakes
disasters costing billions of dollars (Fig. 10.13). Past events show that the
monsoon dominates erosion and sediment transport is high in the HKH
region. For example, signifi cantly higher number of extreme events leads to
higher erosion volumes and greater fl uvial mass transport rates (Bookhagen
2010) (Fig. 10.14). The most dramatic negative impacts are expected such
as economic losses and damage of high-value infrastructure, high incident
of vector and water-borne diseases (World Bank 2009a).
Figure 10.12. Trend in natural disaster in the HKH region. Taking into account of drought;
earthquake (seismic activity); epidemic; extreme temperature; fl ood; insect infestation; mass
movement dry; mass movement wet; storm; volcano; wildfi re. Flood and earthquake are
frequent in HKH region (http://www.emdat.be/about).