Future Sustainability Challenges in Hindu Kush-Himalaya - Impact of Global Changes on Mountains: Responses and Adaptation - page 228

sources of freshwater reserves providing headwater to the 10 major river
basins (Fig. 10.1), which are the lifeline of the regional economy. These
basins directly sustain livelihoods of millions of people living in the region,
especially people living in arid and semi-arid areas. Ecosystem services from
these basins provide the basis for livelihoods contributing to a substantial
part of the region's GDP (Eriksson et al. 2009). At varying degrees and times,
more than 1.4 billion people living in the Himalayan river basins rely on
both meltwater and monsoon waters to sustain their livelihoods, mainly
for irrigation, drinking, sanitation and industrial uses (Xu et al. 2009, UNEP
2012a). Part of the water fl ow in these river basins depends on snow and
glacial melt to perennial rivers, such as the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra,
Mekong and Yangtze (Eriksson et al. 2009). In turn, the amount of snow-
and ice melt infl uences runoff into lowland rivers and the amounts of water
recharging river-fed aquifers. The greatest dependence is in arid and semi-
arid areas, such as western China, northeastern Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
and parts of Pakistan (Immerzeel et al. 2010, Thayyen et al. 2007). In western
China, 25% of the population directly depends on meltwater in the dry
season (Xu et al. 2007); there is less dependence in monsoon-dominated
regions (Dyurgerov and Meier 2005).
However the region faces extreme vulnerability and risk due to climate
change, warming at higher altitudes has raised concern of glacial retreat,
and increased frequency of extreme events while persistent challenges
of poverty, rapid urbanization, increased production and consumption,
population growth and environmental degradation have exacerbated,
threatening future sustainability of the region (ICIMOD 2011).
Is the Future Sustainability of Hindu Kush-Himalaya at Risk?
A globally dominating production and consumption
The region embraces globally dominating production and consumption,
and the fastest growing economies (UNEP 2008). Figure 10.2 GDP per capita
in 1995 and 2025 and the annual rate of growth between 1995 and 2025
are projected to grow in the HKH counties. Growth rate will be highest
in Asia, ranging from 2.1 to 5.2% per year (Rosegrant et al. 2002). As a
result the region has emerged as a signifi cant contributor of greenhouse
gas emissions although per capita emissions are still extremely low by
international standards (World Bank 2009a). The emerging economies
of China and India are expected to maintain 8 to 9% rate of economic
growth over the next several years that will largely determine the future
perspective of the region's environment (Bawa et al. 2010). The HKH region
also faces the greatest population pressure on the land, with a three-fold
increase in human population since 1950 (GWP 2011). Net irrigation-water