Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
catastrophe that are primarily based on emotion rather than substantiated
scientifi c evaluation. Vital technical details are fi nally becoming available
so that estimation of risk can be based upon scientifi cally generated facts
rather than emotion and the journalistic desire to fl ash 'breaking news'.
In addition, the local Sherpa communities are being incorporated into the
research as key players (Byers et al. 2014).
Our UNU team became aware of the rapid growth and potential danger
of Imja Lake by a curious coincidence. Professor Fritz Müller was a close
friend from McGill University graduate student days in Montreal. In 1956
he was a member of the Swiss expedition to Everest and Lhotse, staying on
to undertake the fi rst glaciological and permafrost research in the region.
His untimely death in 1980 resulted in part of his collection of Khumbu
photographs being placed in my care. This included a 1956 panorama
across the Imja Glacier looking on to the south face of Lhotse. In that year
there was no lake on the surface of the Imja Glacier; by 1985 there was a
lake more than 1,000 metres long and 500 metres wide. As stated above,
the lake is many times larger today. 4
The 1985 discovery led to further exploration by my own graduate
students (and subsequently by their students) and others, research that has
continued to the present (see end note 3). Even in 1985 we considered the
risk of a glacial lake outburst although any realistic prediction of its timing
and magnitude was not possible. Current, although still not suffi ciently
well-founded, predictions are that an outburst, should it occur, could be
felt for up to 100 kilometres downstream. But this is only one of several
hundred glacier lakes that are developing in the Himalaya and in many
glacierized mountain regions world-wide.
How does this relate to mountaineering and trekking in the Everest
region? Certainly any glacial lake outburst flood would likely cause
extensive damage and loss of life; this must not be under-estimated. What
is perhaps remarkable, however, is that such an event, depending on its
timing, could overwhelm several hundred trekkers, mountaineers, porters
and guides, certainly many times the intolerable total of lives already lost
in the search for glory on The Mountain. Yet there is a curious disconnect
in news media reportage. On one hand we read about the loss of life on
Everest itself, overcrowding, heroism and serious environmental damage;
on the other, there are grossly exaggerated reports that climate warming
is causing formation of numerous glacier lakes throughout the Himalaya
that are leading to the imminent threat of catastrophic outbursts, and
consequent loss of millions of lives downstream—a particularly shameful
case of uninformed exaggeration.
My personal response is that we do not have the necessary geotechnical
data to predict if, or when Imja Lake, or any other glacial lake, will burst
and so cause heavy loss of life and property. Nevertheless, news media
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