Managing Ecosystem Services for Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalayas - Impact of Global Changes on Mountains: Responses and Adaptation - page 214

globally (IPCC 2007), it also pointed out the lack of reliable data and limited
data collection efforts in the HKH. It is evident that climate change in the
HKH will affect all aspects of the climate, making rainfall less predictable,
changing the character of seasons, and increase the risk to biodiversity (Xu
et al. 2009, Chettri et al. 2010, Chettri et al. 2012). However, the impacts of
climate change are not evenly distributed within the region, nor among
different communities and sectors of society.
Potential impact ecosystems
Although there is no strict compartmentalization of vegetation along
altitudinal gradients in the HKH region, elevation has important implications
for its ecology, evolution, physiology and conservation and is highly
relevant to species' composition and phenology patterns (Chettri et al. 2001,
Carpenter 2005). As a result of microclimatic variations, most organisms
found in the HKH are confi ned to specifi c ecosystems such as highland
pastures, forests and so on. This is a special risk factor for highland species
that are sensitive to climate change (Pounds et al. 2006) and more likely
to be at risk of extinction. Globally, there is evidence of the shift of species
towards the north in latitude (Hickling et al. 2006) or higher elevations
(Wilson et al. 2007), especially for species in the transition zone between
subalpine and alpine which are more vulnerable to climate change as they
have limited scope for movement. Analyses for the Himalayas are few and
limited to certain pockets of areas (Carpenter 2005). Observations have been
made about the change in events related to plant and animal phenology
and also to shifting of treelines and encroachment of woody vegetation
into alpine meadows. Phenological changes, such as early budding or
fl owering and ripening of fruits in plants and hibernation, migration, and
breeding in animals, could have adverse impacts on pollination patterns.
Consequently, this may have an impact on the population of pollinators,
leading to change in ecosystem productivity and species' composition in
high-altitude habitats (Thuiller et al. 2008).
Potential impact species
Climate change increases the risk of extinction of species that use narrow
geographic and climatic ranges but important for the ecosystem integrity
(Hannah et al. 2007). According to the prevailing extinction theory, the larger
and more specialized species are likely to be lost due to habitat destruction
(Sodhi et al. 2004). This might be signifi cant for the Himalayan region as
habitat and forest destruction were seen to have increased although the
quality of increasing and decreasing forests has not been assessed (Pandit