Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
females, and among different age cohorts (Figure 3-5). An
age cohort represents different age groups usually in five-
year segments. For example, persons between the ages of 50
and 55 would be an age cohort. In population pyramids,
age cohorts are divided by gender. Some pyramids show
percentages of males and females in each cohort. The pyr-
amids indicate numbers of people (in thousands) that are
easier to understand.
Assuming that a baby stays alive for 60 years or more,
it will “move upward” through the pyramid as the years
go by . For instance, a newborn (0 years old) in 2009 is in
the 0-5 year cohort. By 2020, it will be in the 15-20 year
cohort. For the sake of discussion, if all the babies stay
alive and reach the age of 60, the whole giant 0-5 cohort
that you see now will be in the 60-65 age cohort in 2070.
Of course, the probability of this happening is remote.
Most populations for Asian countries have wide
bases, indicating high NIRs and youthful populations.
Considering that it is female cohorts ages 15-45 that are
potential child-bearers, this age group will increase dra-
matically as younger cohorts age. For example, a five-
year-old girl in 2000 will be a potential mother in 2010
(or perhaps even earlier).
Timor-Leste has a very small population of only
1.1 million. However, its NIR is 3.1 percent and its TFR is
6.5. This means that if these rates continue, the country' s
population will multiply 184 percent by 2050! If you ex-
amine the pyramid again, you can see a sudden rise in
births in the 1990s. This reflects the ending of years of
violence beginning in 1976 when Indonesia forcibly took
over the country and initiated a campaign of “pacifica-
tion” that lasted for two decades. An estimated 100,000
to 250,000 Timorese were killed. Obviously , this situa-
tion negatively affected population growth.
Japan stands in sharp contrast to Timor-Leste be-
cause its population is clearly shrinking dramatically . As
you can also see by the pyramid, there are many more
people over 35, especially in the over-65 category , in
Japan than there are in Timor-Leste. Look for more on
Japan' s population in Chapter 12.
FAMILY PLANNING
Virtually all South Asian, East Asian, and Southeast
Asian countries have population planning programs,
although these are unevenly accessible and acceptable
Timor-Leste - 2009
Male
Female
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
70
56
0
42
14
28
14
Population (in thousands)
0
28
42
56
70
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
Figure 3-5
Compare these population pyramids. Timor-Leste' s broad-based pyramid indicates a high
rate of natural increase until the 1990s when the natural increase rate started to decline.
The narrowing base of Japan' is pyramid shows that its population is declining. The narrow-
ing base of Vietnam' s pyramid reflects the success of its family planning programs.
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