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Case II.a We would have S r−1 [r − 1] = r − 1, if the index r − 1 is not
touched during the rounds i = 0,...,r − 2. This happens with proba-
bility ( N−1
N
) r−1 .
Case II.b Following Theorem 3.1.5, The event S r−1 [y] = f y happens with
a probability ( N−y
N
) [ y(y+1)
) ( N−1
N
+r−1] +
1
N . For small values of y,
2
N ) [ y(y+1 2 +r−2] (obtained by
considering the event A y only in the proof of Lemma 3.1.3), which gives
a simpler expression. For good approximation, we restrict y in [0,31].
this is approximately equal to ( N−y
N
) ( N−1
Case II.c In the r-th round (when i = r−1), j r becomes y with probability
1
N .
Thus,
(S r [S r [y]] = f y )∧(S r [y] = r−1)
P
[ y(y+1)
2
r−1
+r−2] 1
N
N −1
N
N −y
N
N −1
N
=
y(y+1)
2
+2r−3
1
N
N −y
N
N −1
N
=
.
Adding the contributions of Cases I and II, we get
y(y+1)
2
+2r−3
N −2
N
1
N
N −y
N
N −1
N
q r (y) =
q r−1 (y) +
.
The recurrence in Lemma 3.1.16 and the base case in Lemma 3.1.15
completely specify the probabilities q r (y) for all y in [0,...,31] and r in
[y + 1,...,N].
Now let us see what happens after the complete KSA.
Theorem 3.1.17. For 0 ≤ y ≤ 31,
y(y+1)
2
+2(N−2)
P(S N [S N [y]] = f y ) ≈ y
N
N −1
N
y(y+1)
2
−y+2(N−1)
+ 1
N
N −1
N
y(y+1)
2
+2N−3
N −y−1
N
N −y
N
N −1
N
+
Proof: Approximating ( N−2
N
) by ( N−1
N
) 2 , the recurrence in Lemma 3.1.16
can be rewritten as
y(y+1)
2
2
+2r−3
N −1
N
1
N
N −y
N
N − 1
N
q r (y) =
q r−1 (y) +
,
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