Information Technology Reference
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Fig. 4.
Diffusion curves of scenarios (Source: the authors)
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Conclusions and Recommendations
This paper proposed an alternative explanation for the double-S shape observed in
several complete and successful innovation diffusion processes, which is based on the
rationality of individuals instead of technological change, macroeconomic events or
interactions among people.
For the analyzed phenomenon, the heterogeneity in population has a high impact
on the diffusion curves, changing its shape pattern. In this sense, competing diffusion
that happens in heterogeneous populations with asymmetric information tends to have
saddle points that give a double S-shaped; while homogeneous populations allow the
formation of simple S-shaped curve typically analyzed in simple diffusion models.
As well, it was shown that the network structure affects the speed of the diffusion,
but not the shape of it; i.e, the network structure has not any incidence on the S-shape
phenomenon.
This analysis differ from previous analysis for the same phenomenon, because it
models explicitly the individual rationality. It was possible because the use of an
agent based model, and perhaps because of the recent appearance of this technique in
the innovation diffusion field, this analysis could not have been explored by previous
research.
At the methodological level, this research shows the potential of using agent based
models to address more questions about diffusion of innovations, especially those
related with the individual rationality; thus, the individual level modeling can allow
