Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
developed in NetLogo language and environment [21]. The agents are individuals that
are interconnected according to a specific network structure.
Considered innovations correspond to theoretical exercises, which were simulated
for a population of 100 individuals (which compose one only agent breed, besides
observer) in a horizon of 20 periods. In each simulation step, only those individuals
who have not chosen one of the innovations use the heuristic to make a decision.
Also, it is assumed that the decision-making process is not reversible, i.e. once one of
the individual adopted one of the innovations, he/she cannot change his/her mind
about it (this is equivalent to a model of first purchases, as suggested by Bass [6] in
their original research).
The diffusion processes described above is based on bounded rationality
guidelines, and consists of a heuristic at individual level, which is composed by three
modules according to Todd and Gigerenzer [22]: (1) information search, (2)
alternatives evaluation and (3) selection criterion. The individual's awareness about
innovations is determined by the individual exposure to each one of the innovations,
which depends on advertising for innovation, and increases as more individuals in the
network adopt one or another innovation. Figure 2 shows the decision rule schema for
potential adopters.
The assessment made for every individual about each innovation is a weighted
average between the influence of word-of-mouth (which depends on the number of
previous adopters directly connected to the individual) and the advertising of the
particular innovation. Thus, in every period of simulation, each individual monitors
the information provided by the environment, and can be found in one of four
possible scenarios: (1) individual is not informed of any innovation, (2) individual
knows only innovation number 1, (3) individual knows only innovation number 2 or
(4) individual knows both innovations.
Each one of these situations involves a different procedure in the heuristic
regarding the selection criterion, namely:
─
If the individual does not know any innovation, there is no decision to consider.
─
If the individual knows only one innovation, it is verified that the value of this
innovation meets or exceeds the satisfying level of individual (threshold of
satisfaction - TS); in this case, the innovation is adopted. If this value is below its
threshold of satisfaction, the individual does not adopt the innovation and adjusts
its threshold of satisfaction value downward.
─
If the individual knows both innovations, it can happen:
•
None of the innovations meets or exceeds the threshold of satisfaction of the
individual; in this case, the individual does not adopt any innovation and
decreases its threshold of satisfaction for the next step.
•
Only one of the innovations exceeds the threshold of satisfaction of the
individual; in this case, the individual adopts this alternative.
•
Both innovations exceed the threshold of satisfaction of individual; in this case,
the individual does not adopt any innovation and increases its threshold of
satisfaction for the next step.
