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In contrast, the satisficing model evaluates all scales equally: a chosen land-use
pattern must exceed all thresholds. As a consequence κ does not play a similar
significant role for limiting the area of horticultural crops. Instead being legal or at
least “being not too illegal" plays a much more important role in the satisficing
model
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.
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Conclusions
Two similar agent-based models of agricultural land-use were implemented to
investigate the factors that drive the groundwater (over-)use in the Upper Guadiana.
The models differed (only) with respect to the decision-making algorithm of farmers
among sets of possible future land-uses. One followed a utility-based approach while
the other implemented satisficing. The different decision-making algorithms lead to
differing conclusions on the reasons for the observed empirical historical
development, and would thus lead to different policy recommendations to influence
future development in the Guadiana. The utility-based model stresses switching costs,
learning efforts and the available labour force as main factors that limit a stronger
shift to horticultural crops which would provide more cash per drop and thus would
allow reducing groundwater extractions without strong economic losses. In contrast,
the satisficing model highlights the routine (non-optimizing) behaviour of farmers as
the main reason. Although none of the models reproduces the historical development
very closely the satisficing model captures the overall behaviour better and
outperforms the utility-based model, what indicates that the factors highlighted by this
model might be closer to the drivers in the real system.
The model comparison demonstrates the importance of model robustness analyses
which go beyond parameter variations, but include variation of uncertain
assumptions, such as actor rationality.
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Galán, J.M., Izquierdo, L.R., Izquierdo, S.S., Santos, J.I., del Olmo, R., López-Paredes, A.,
Edmonds, B.: Errors and Artefacts in Agent-Based Modelling. JASSS 12(1) (2009)
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An, L.: Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of
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For a more elaborate explanation of the treatment of the binary scale “legality” in the
satisficing model see [11].
