Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
Each of these headlines involved several questions. Some of these were more quali-
tative in nature whereas others were more quantitative. We ask for the specification of
biomass (1) in order to model delays that translate into dynamics in the system (e.g. sup-
ply chain fluctuations; price volatility). The specificities of the biomass may amplify or
reduce these dynamics. The firm specification (2) related to the size and capital struc-
ture of companies and the agents properties in the model. We were also interested in
obtaining information about the service providers (3). However due to an unexpectedly
low turnout of stakeholders we decided to cancel this group and obtain this information
in future via other means. Finally, we asked questions on policy in order to validate our
concept according to these criteria later in the project (4).
The first two topics proved challenging because they involved a long list of sub
questions. We collected data on the capital costs of the different technologies and on
specific resource prices. Furthermore, we learnt that biomass processors can set up dif-
ferent production lines for biomass and oil to derive their intermediate inputs from
different sources and to differentiate their products according to market price for ei-
ther product category. This seemed to provide qualitative evidence for the hypothesis
that price volatility is indeed a concern for producers. We also obtained some confir-
mation for properties demonstrated by the toy model. We heard that biofuel producers
were indeed operating at a very tight margin as suggested by the model and that the
path-dependencies we had observed appeared reasonable to stakeholders.
Overall we considered the workshop a success despite the fact that the turnout was
lower than expected from advance confirmations. This was not least because stakehold-
ers expressed interest in providing input into successive versions of the agent-based
model, which will be made available to them online in the near future.
6
Revising the Rules of the ABM
Some of the information gathered at the workshop can directly be used to revise agents
and their decision rules, e.g. we learnt about different processors' cost structures, du-
rations of supply contracts according to processor type, and processors' flexibility in
using different inputs. By contrast, other aspects can only be implemented together with
the above conceptual approach, e.g. the effects of seasonality of (primary) biomass or
the possibility to store biomass (thus mitigating possible supply volatility). (The toy
model only covered organic waste without delays.) The revised ABM will be able to
model the different streams and markets. These are partly interdependent and the inter-
dependency between markets for primary biomass and secondary (recycled) biomass
is crucial to keep the development of renewable energy from biomass on a sustainable
trajectory. (It is also of considerable practical interest for instance for the stakeholders.)
Interdependence is generally typical for markets emerging from the internalisation of
environmental externalities. Another benefit of the above conceptual approach of differ-
entiated flows is that it could also take the spread of pathogens into account. By contrast
this is outside the realm of economic models.
-
Food processors seek contracts (with introduction of waste tax) and individual of-
fers are made secretly (no auction) Municipalities seek contracts and suitable (scale)
processors.
