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(Quote 4) “Trading in Futures is always an option but I think it is almost a
different ball game that is not really farming as such, but... it's hedging your bets
on guaranteeing a price ahead. So if you think you can make money on a
particular price level and you can see that on a Future's price, say next April,
next May, next June, and so on, you could hook on to that and guarantee you are
going to get that price but if the market goes up of course you lose out, course if
the market goes down you've won. So you know it's 50/50 one way or the other.
Not many farmers do it - there was a period when a lot of us tried it and... it
wasn't a vast success. I think I have tried it three times now. This is on Options -
three times I've done it, and I think twice we have missed out and once we won
out, so there's not much in it.” ( [3] p.145)
Note that this is not considered from a comfort point of view (then not having to
worry about the final price) or the entrepreneur point of view (making a profit via
speculation) but, again, the survival viewpoint. If this had been within an
entrepreneur context it might have led to quite a different analysis.
Table 5.
CSNE Analysis of Quote 4
Context
Scope
Narrative Elements
Survival
Fix
price
on
•
If market drops over the year you gain
Futures Market
•
If market rises over the year you lose
•
No gain in long term
The final quote I consider is about other farmers.
(Quote 5) “We used to grow onions here years ago and I have been wondering
whether we should go back into onions, but so is every other Tom, Dick and
Harry, and I think that will be the next thing that is over done... So, got to be
careful there.” ( [3] p. 120)
Being in the pessimistic survival context, he expects that if there is any opportunity
everyone else will also see it and hence the price advantage disappear (although this
will be more relevant to a risky and smaller-demand crop like onions). Growing
onions is a possibility because he already has experience in growing it.
Table 6.
CSNE Analysis of Quote 4
Context
Scope
Narrative Elements
Survival
Could try growing
onions
•
If it is good to grow onions, maybe other
farmers think so to and the price would
be poor, thus needs to be make with
caution (avoiding excessive risk)
All these quotes are from a farmer reflecting on his (he is reported as male)
everyday practice, and thus is not situated within the various seasons of the year. If
one was simulating a month-by-month process it may be that the seasons also help
