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as part of the coping with stress intention set. Many aspects of Maasai culture are
adapted to support pastoral livelihoods, which is one reason why Maasai are relatively
resistant to change [31]. However, differentiation driven by shifting worldviews and
experiences may erode customary coping mechanisms based on social networks, lead-
ing to the loss and/or replacement of this source of resilience in the system.
4.5
Testing the Rules
A return visit to the field was carried out in 2013 to explore whether the interpretation
of qualitative data and subsequent development of rules in the ABM hold meaning for
participants [32]. The objectives for this fieldwork period were to test elements of the
modelling strategy, model parameters and assumptions and to explore future scenarios
for developing the model further. Interviews were held with subsets of the original
participants to explore and reflect verbally on the findings of the research so far.
While the majority of participants were not literate or familiar with spatial dia-
grams, all of them had a degree of understanding of scientific research, having been
exposed to many researchers from different disciplines over recent decades. There-
fore, participants did not question a desire to understand their activities, implicitly
accepting outsider interest in their culture which they encounter routinely through
tourism, research and non-governmental organisations. Many participants, and cer-
tainly those who have been educated or exposed to outsider interest, through em-
ployment for example, have very good understandings of the issues in which
researchers are interested such as natural resource use, livestock management and
climate variability which provides researcher and participant with a general level of
shared understanding. Furthermore, due to a relatively high level of research expo-
sure, the local leaders and almost all participants expect researchers to feedback on
the process in which significant time and assistance has been invested.
During interviews, a series of “if-then?” and “what-if?” questions were used to in-
terrogate the model procedures and check explicit and implicit assumptions. In most
instances, illustrative diagrams did not prove useful in structuring discussions with
participants, who are unfamiliar with such media, and therefore were not generally
used
.
Rather, questioning followed the model process step by step. In this way, the
rules, process order and conditions in the ABM were tested with participants to see
whether they seemed reasonable representations of their perspectives.
An example of how this final round of fieldwork altered the model is the adjust-
ment of erroneous assumptions about seasonal decisions. When asked what they
would do if it does not rain in the short rainy season (November-December), partici-
pants said they would carry on as normal rather take actions in anticipation of a
drought, which had been the assumption in the model. Instead, a more realistic repre-
sentation that agents will start to anticipate stress if the short rains fail and the subse-
quent long rains (March-June) are delayed was included. Returning two years after
the drought, it appeared that while people had adopted very different livelihood strat-
egies, they did not consider drought risk explicitly in their short-term decisions. As on
participant explained it, “if you told me there was going to be a drought tomorrow
