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integrated [23] and materials were re-read several times over a period of time to ena-
ble reflection on these issues.
4.2
Development of Theory
Through this analytical process, social and cultural shifts emerged as an important
theme in the qualitative data and therefore form the basis of the theory of decision-
making for the ABM of the system.
It is well documented that Kajiado, typical of many dryland pastoral systems, is
undergoing a process of change driven by socio-economic, political and environmen-
tal factors such as population growth, globalisation, changes in land use and land
tenure, shifting policy context, market access, technological innovations and climate
change [24]. Analyses of pastoral societies have been focussed primarily on the socio-
economic impacts of these factors in terms of assets, cash flows, livelihood incomes
and natural resource availability. However, using the mixed methods described above,
this fieldwork revealed shifting attitudes to livestock and pastoral livelihoods among
the communities of the study area, which came out strongly in the coding of qualita-
tive data. For example, when questioned soon after the drought, participants described
how “people don't want to herd anymore”. Young people “don't want to walk in the
bush day after day”, rather they “want to go to school and get jobs”. Herding is
thought to be “a tough life” compared to alternative employment opportunities, par-
ticularly in light of the lived experience of the drought [25].
Furthermore, differences emerged between the two communities within the study
area. Although the inhabitants of Mbirikani and Eselenkei are from the same Maasai
clans, share a broadly similar environment and pursue common livestock-based live-
lihoods, their differential socio-political experiences and exposure to commercial
opportunities has led to differences in their broad worldviews. For example, Mbirika-
ni herder age-groups claimed their counterparts in Eselenkei “are not learned, they are
only interested in cows”, they “buy many cows”, whereas young men in Mbirikani
believe “it is good to own land not cows”, “cows are easily lost during a drought” and
“you can keep cows once you have your land”. Mbirikani participants described Ese-
lenkei herders as “somehow innocent” due to the perception that they are interested in
investing only in livestock. On the other hand, Eselenkei herders feel people in Mbiri-
kani “should invest in cows” and they “don't know why they are moving away from
livestock”. Participants from Eselenkei claimed the need for diversification into horti-
culture on private plots of land purported by their age-mates in Mbirikani is “a big
lie” and they are “just being greedy because they have seen others become rich with
plots”.
Further complexity is added by apparent shifts in worldview and livelihood strate-
gies as a result of the lived experience of the drought. Herders from both areas were
forced to travel further than at any time in the past 100 years with their livestock in
search of forage and water for their family's herds. Most participants had never
herded beyond their neighbouring areas and the different experiences they had on
their journeys have led to different attitudes and behaviours upon their return. For
