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Narratives of a Drought: Exploring Resilience in Kenya's
Drylands
Elizabeth Anne Carabine 1 , John Wainwright 2 , and Chasca Twyman 1
1 Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
{e.carabine,c.twyman}@sheffield.ac.uk
2 Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
john.wainwright@durham.ac.uk
Abstract. Drylands are complex, dynamic social-ecological systems under
threat from potential climate change and land-use changes. Mixed qualitative
methods, including participatory observation and informal and semi-structured
interviews, have been used to capture narratives of livelihoods and environment
in Kajiado District, Kenya, with particular reference to a severe drought event
in 2009. Analyses have shown cultural changes to be important processes in
responding to system shocks and stresses. A Beliefs-Desires-Intentions agent
architecture has been employed in an agent-based model to explore the emerg-
ing narratives after the drought, offering a means of focussing on these key
processes and their implications for the system. A series of iterative periods of
fieldwork have allowed model strategy, parameters and assumptions to be
tested and refined with the original research participants.
Keywords: agent-based model, qualitative, climate change, land-use change,
pastoralism.
1
Introduction
The combined impacts of potential climate change and land-use change are likely to
have significant effects on the sustainability of dryland ecosystems and the services
they provide to the societies that depend on them [1]. Understanding the complex
interactions between dryland ecosystems and local livelihood strategies is critical for
exploring responses to shocks and stresses associated with climate change [2] and the
implications for social-ecological resilience [3].
Employing an interdisciplinary approach, this research uses modelling as an inte-
grating tool. An agent-based model (ABM) of pastoralist decision-making, derived
from qualitative data, is combined with mechanistic vegetation modelling to explore
the social-ecological dynamics of these globally important systems. With the inclu-
sion of participatory research methods, the modelling approach attempts to combine
actor-based and systems-based enquiry to explore narratives of livelihoods, land-use
change and climate change in a study system in southern Kenya. In this paper we
focus on the approach taken to develop the ABM.
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