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In-Depth Information
Model Specification
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2.2
Table 2 doesn't only give a first lead for model matching, it also forms a valuable
source for model specification. In the last column (contextualised ABM) we indicated
some first ideas of for the contextualised ABM. Particularly, the grey cells point out
the focus for us as modellers to make decisions. The first type of decisions concern
which factors to include and which not, since the context indicates more richness
(light grey cells). It could also imply that these are the factors for manipulation in the
simulation to explore their influence. The second form of decisions concern concepts
in the theory (model) of which no data is available (dark grey cells). This is where we
can choose to formulate assumptions or to collect data.
In a first version we will adopt the assumptions from the ostracism model, to have
a baseline model to compare with while adapting the model gradually by adding
contextual factors.
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Conclusion
In this paper we highlight a story of contextualising models in which we typically
start from a theory/model and relate it to empirical data to see which aspects of a so-
cial-ecological context matter and to derive focus points for model specification. Our
aim is to open the discussion about the design stage of our model and share reflec-
tions among peers to increase the quality of (our) model(s) in a fundamental stage of
modelling. Discussions could involve:
•
Alternative options or suggestions for contextualising ABM (column 4)
•
Assumptions in models
•
Empirical data for model specification
The larger idea behind developing an ABM case study of Bali irrigation is to move
the body of generic theoretical models closer to particular group of real world phe-
nomena. These are phenomena where the collective interests of resource use, like
water, are in conflict with individual interests, i.e., social dilemmas. Social-ecological
research that is concerned with these dilemmas is provided with abstract theoretical
models with strong analytical power, however little relation to real world social di-
lemmas. On the other hand, there exists an abundance of rich and descriptive case
studies on real world social dilemmas that are case-specific. The use of ABM case
studies is a way to discern between factors that are case specific and social dilemma
specific. Enriching generalised models with these context sensitive social dilemma
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What we do here touches content wise with what [18] discuss. However, our focus lies on
combining existing theoretical models in and contextualising it with empirical data. Where
we agree with the communicated importance of empirical embeddedness, particularly also on
the micro foundations of a model (model design). We focus on covering the first stages of
model selection and model specification. Where Boero & Squazzioni [18] touches upon mod-
el specification the focus and research attention in general goes more to model calibration and
output validation with empirical data.
