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Simulating Opinion Dynamics in Land Use
Planning
Arend Ligtenberg and Arnold K. Bregt
Wageningen University, Laboratory for Geo-Information and Remote Sensing
arend.ligtenberg@wur.nl
Abstract.
During a process of spatial planning multiple actors meet in
a decision making process trying to satisfy as much as possible their indi-
vidual desires and goals. Diffusion of opinions is considered an important
factor in this process. A behavioural approach that represent the diffu-
sion and distribution of opinions are absent in most spatial ABMs. This
research presents a novel approach to simulating spatial opinions dynam-
ics based on an agent based implementation of the Deffuant Weisbuch
model. The model explicitly deals with spatial heterogeneity in opinions
as well as heterogeneity in the willingness of agents to adapt their opin-
ions. The model is demonstrated for a hypothetical spatial allocation
problem in a study area in the south-east of the Netherlands. Three dif-
ferent scenarios representing different levels of willingness to cooperate
within the population of agents are worked out. The results showed that
explicit spatial opinion patterns can be simulated which are in line with
what would be expected from the scenarios.
1
Introduction
Spatial planning aims to change the land use such that it fulfills the needs
of the current and future demands of society. Traditionally spatial planning is
considered a decision-making process in which a selected set of actors have to
agree on a common goal to be achieved. Modern spatial planning slowly shifts
from a linear process, based on coordinated steps, towards a continuous, multi-
faceted process. Larger, more heterogeneous group of actors get involved in the
decision-making. Decision-making in such heterogeneous, multi-faceted environ-
ment is highly complex and depends on continuous interactions between actors
who are communicating and interchanging opinions, suggestions and ideas. Typ-
ically the result of such a process is not an optimal configuration of land use but
one that satisfies the needs of the community of actors as a whole. This means
that, considering spatial planning as a group-decision making process, the out-
come can be considered an optimal one given a solution space determined by
the continuous interactions of individual opinions of the actors, and the possi-
bilities and constraint imposed by the physical and legislative characteristics of
the environment. While most current land use models handle the pysical and
legislative aspects of land use change well, representations of opinion dynamics
are missing or only present at a aggregated level. One way of representing the
