Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
Diffusion Dynamics of Electric Cars and Adaptive Policy:
Towards an Empirical Based Simulation
Wander Jager
1
, Marco Janssen
2
, and Marija Bockarjova
3,4
1
University of Groningen, Groningen Center for Social Complexity Studies & Marketing
w.jager@rug.nl
2
Arizona State University, School of Human Evolution and Social Change & Center
for the Study of Institutional Diversity
Marco.Janssen@asu.edu
3
Free University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration,
Department of Spatial Economics
m.bockarjova@vu.nl
4
University of Groningen, Faculty of Behavioral Sciences, Department of Social Psychology
Abstract.
In this paper we apply the updated consumat approach to the case of
diffusion of electric cars. We will discuss how data from a large sample can be
used to parameterize a number of main behavioural drivers, and how these re-
late to behavioural processes. At this stage we explain how the data fit in the
framework, and whereas a model is currently under development, first simula-
tion results are to be available first during the ESSA conference.
Keywords:
diffusion, electric cars, agent based modeling, human behavior,
decision making, needs, consumat.
1
Introduction
Electric mobility is in its initial stage to penetrate the automobile markets as a step
towards a more sustainable mobility. Electric cars may potentially address some
pressing environmental and energy security problems. EVs offer zero tailpipe emis-
sions of CO2, and, given sustainable energy production, much lower emissions over
the whole lifecycle. In addition electric vehicles contribute to improved air quality
(zero particulate matter emissions) and noise reductions in the urban areas. Finally,
electric cars may provide storage capacity in a smart grid system.
In a large empirical study conducted in summer 2012 the motives and perceptions
of 3000 Dutch drivers were investigated. This cross sectional dataset provides a de-
tailed view of the respondents driving behaviour, preferences, values and uncertain-
ties concerning fuel and electric cars. The data shows that some drivers are more
favourable towards the adoption of an electric car than others. This is related to dif-
ferent reasons. For example, some respondents have a transportation pattern that can
easily be met by an electric car, others like to show their innovativeness using new
technology, and still others may prefer to drive electric because of environmental
concern.
