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Fig. 5.
New cancer cases per day, for different scenarios
in a given subgroup can be very active or passive, at different iterations. We
introduce change of sexuality as a linear increase of newborn's sexuality (the
young at age 15 coming into the system) during 50 years of simulation. In the
older age categories, sexuality increase is delayed, and agent bring their 'sexual
liberality' by aging (coming from younger to the older subgroup).
Cancer Developing.
Once a woman is infected, she can either recover or be
“permanently” colonized. From colonized state, she can be screened according to
the program, or for other reasons, and find out about the infection. We assume
that disease is curable in 100% of the cases if treated at this stage. Those women
at the stage StageII who haven't been screened have a risk of developing cancer.
Once a woman has acquired cancer, she can either survive or die, with given
probabilities.
Immunity.
Agents acquire temporal immunity due to natural recovery (and
are moved from HPV or SrageII to R), but after some time they lose immunity
and became Susceptible (S). Moreover, recovering from HPV does not protect
against new infections forever, even for the same strain, and other modelers as-
sume immunity period of 5 or 10 years [1,4].
Vaccination.
We decided to vaccinate obligatory (in one scenario) only 14 years
old girls (vaccination takes place before sexual debut) This is represented as a
flow of the fraction covered by vaccination straight from birth flow to stage vac-
cinated (Vw) then they stay in this set of stages until death (life-long vaccine).
We allow vaccinating older cohort of girls (20
24) up to 5% of subgroup pop-
ulation (for all scenarios). It represents voluntary decision of some girls or their
parents (it's recommended by vaccine producers to vaccinate up to 26 years old
girls). In the model it is implemented as the flow from the Susceptible (Sw) to
Vaccinated (Vw).
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