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Tabl e 3.
Model parameters
Parameter name
Description
Value
Reference
inflow
daily inflow of youth
Figure 4(b)
aprox. [5]
rate in Poland
deathrate
daily death
sex, age and population
aprox. [5], [23]
rate in Poland
depended
Infectionrate
Infectivity
0
.
5
[15],[3]
per partnership
Partner-
Partner change rates
Stochastic, from
[4]
changratew
1
−
4
in women
Table 1-2
colonizew
1
−
5
HPV progression rate
Age
[4] and [23]
to Stage II
15
−
24: (0
.
1
∗
(0
.
1
/
72 + 0
.
2
/
36)
(per months)
25
−
34: 0
.
5
∗
(0
.
1
/
72 + 0
.
2
/
36)
35
−
64: 0
.
35
/
72 + 0
.
2
/
36
≥
65: 1
.
2
∗
(0
.
35
/
72 + 0
.
2
/
36)
recover
1
−
5
HPV regression rate
Age
[4]
to immune (per month)
15
−
34: 0
.
6
/
18
≥
35: 0
.
15
/
18
screening
1
−
5
Natural rate from stageII
Age
[4]
to immune (per month)
15
−
34: 0
.
65
/
72
≥
35: 0
.
4
/
72
developing
2
−
5
Rate from stageII
15
−
24: (0
.
1
∗
(0
.
13
/
120)
[4], [23]
to cancer
25
−
34: 0
.
5
∗
(0
.
13
/
120)
(per month)
35
−
64: 0
.
13
/
120
≥
65: 1
.
2
∗
(0
.
13
/
120)
PercentVaccinated-
vaccinated before
90%
own assump.
Before
and
Group
1
−
2 corresponding cohorts
5%
vaccineE
cacy
Percent of women for whom 95%
[1]
the vaccine works
survive
5-year survival rate
0.41
[22]
screen
Frequency of screening up to 2
.
5or7
.
5years
own assump.
sexuallity
Linear increase of sexuallity 50% or 75%
own assump.
recoveryRateM
Recovery rate from HPV
0
.
4
/
18
[4]
for men (per month)
immunityLost
Rate from R to S
7
.
5
/
12
[4], [3]
for all (per month)
multistrain
Sum effect of HPV 16 and 18 2
own assump.
Time
Simulations cover 50 years, from 1989 until 2039 (around 25 before the present
year - 2013, to fit model parameters and around 25 years afterwards, to pre-
dict the future situation). Starting year - 1989 was chosen because of political
transformation in Poland. This is when a collapse of social norms began, like
