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Studying Possible Outcomes in a Model of
Sexually Transmitted Virus (HPV) Causing
Cervical Cancer for Poland
Andrzej Jarynowski
1
,
2
,
4
and Ana Serafimovic
3
1
Smoluchowski Institute, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland
2
Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Sweden
3
Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Sweden
4
Central Institute for Labor Protection, National Research Institute,
Warsaw, Poland
andrzej.jarynowski@uj.edu.pl
Abstract.
The aim of this paper is to supplement knowledge about the
spread of sexually transmitted diseases through computer simulations.
The model has aggregated the most important properties of HPV infec-
tions and development of cervical cancer in demographically changing
Polish society. The main goal is the authoritative analysis of the poten-
tial epidemiological control strategies and their impact on situation in
Poland in the future 25 years. Constructed model shows indication that
vaccination with screening organized alongside would be effective mea-
sures against cervical cancer. It also alarms authorities that processes like
aging of society and increase of sexual activity (which are taking place
in Poland at the moment) could recall epidemic, if prevention would not
act properly.
Keywords:
epidemic modeling, social model simulation, system research,
STI, HPV, cervical cancer.
1
Introduction
Human papillomavirus, or HPV, is a sexually transmitted virus infection, which
is not only the main, but also necessary risk factor for developing cervical cancer
[2], [4], [1] - second most common type of cancer in women. Accordingly, these
infections are quite widespread - in 1990s it has been shown that about 70
percent of the sexually active population have acquired a virus of this type at
some point of their lives [7]. Out of 30 types of HPV virus that are known to
infect genital areas, 15 are high risk or oncogenic, although it might pass as
long as twenty years for cancer to develop from the time one gets infected by
such a virus [3]. Among the oncogenic HPVs, the most severe one is type 16,
present in about half of all cervical cancer cases [4]. Recent studies have shown
that the main safety precaution with respect to cervical cancer is going to be a
combination of vaccination and screening - since only type specific vaccines are
available and there are as many as 15 high risk HPVs. As well as that, screening
