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are represented by a few important parameters such as
M
and
P
. Therefore,
we need to determine the values of such parameters. On the other hand, such
parameter values are changed over time in real world plants. Moreover, we do
not consider some of the more important factors such as the energy demands
and financial status. This means that the proposed model can be applied to
estimate the production rate limits only in the short term. To estimate the limit
long term, we need to consider such factors.
The proposed model has limitations because it has both explicit and implicit
assumptions like other simulation models. One of those limitations is that the
model cannot represent the human cognitive factors. In the model, the worker
agents always report the events if they have an insucient skill set to process
them. In other words, one assumption of the model is that plant workers solve
problems only if they have sucient skill. However, the plant workers cannot get
root causes of problems from the phenomena that appear. As a result, they try
to solve the problems even though they have an insucient skill set. Processing
with an insucient skill set sometimes results in human-error causing accidents.
Therefore, we need to consider such cognitive factors and introduce them into
the model.
Another limitation is that the model cannot represent the communication dif-
ficulties among the plant workers. In real world plants, there are communication
diculties since the plants are located in highly dangerous and specific places
like offshore exploration plants. In such dangerous places, using electrical equip-
ment cannot be approved due to the risks of explosion. Therefore, they have
to use traditional radio and wired phones with explosion-proof cases to com-
municate with each other. Moreover, the plant workers on offshore platforms
have to collaborate with their colleagues at onshore plants because there are
a limited number of plant workers on offshore rigs due to the di
cult working
environments. There is the potential for communication failures such as the mis-
understanding of requests. These failures also present accident risks. Therefore,
we also need to consider such communication problems.
6 Concluding Remarks
We proposed our plant operation model in this paper as the estimation method
for the production rate limit for safe production. We modeled plant workers us-
ing agent-based simulation techniques. The proposed model represents that plant
workers solve problems with risks, and that the probability of the occurrence of a
problem is proportional to three main factors, the production rate, the plant size,
and the plant equipment degradation rate. Then, we presented the experimental
results. They showed that the proposed model can estimate the production rate
limits for safe production. It is important to measure them for safe production. Fi-
nally, we discussed the meanings of the results and the limitations of the model.
Our future work is as follows: introduce other important factors into the
model, and propose a new management method or technologies to improve the
plant eciency. As mentioned above, our model has representation limitations for
