CHINA’S WILD WEST - Wildlife Conservation in China: Preserving the Habitat of China's Wild West - page 34

Figure 2.7 Precipitation recorded at Xining, Qinghai, 1951-93. Dashed line shows the
(nonsignificant) trend with time, which is slightly positive.

600

y = 0.2182x - 66.988
R 2 = 0.0013

500

400

300

200

100

0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

known to have been even during the wettest periods 30,000 years ago. 39 Clearly, the rate
of decline must have increased sometime during the past half-century.
As well, if human activities around the lake are not the primary cause of its rapid
decline, we would expect to find evidence of decreased precipitation in the area. 40 But
weather stations at neither Dulan (Figure 2.6 above, 1954-98) nor Xining (Figure 2.7,
1951-93), the two most reliable weather stations west and east of the lake, provide any
evidence of a drying trend during the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, the
more likely culprits are the scores of diversions from Qinghai Lake's feeder streams that
have been built, first prior to 1949 but in increasing density during the 1950s and 1960s,
to develop an ill-advised agricultural base at 3,200 m.
The point of all this is not to deny the reality of long-term climate fluctuations, or to
doubt the reality of global warming (or its likely negative consequences for biodiversity in
western China should it continue). 41 Rather, it is to urge the interpretation of the implica-
tions of climate change at an appropriate temporal scale, and care in making overly broad
inferences. Climate change is real, but it seems premature to invoke it as an important
cause of grassland degradation in western China.

HOW MUCH HAVE GRASSLANDS IN WESTERN CHINA
BEEN DEGRADED?

Most wildlife in China's west is ultimately dependent on the condition of its extensive
grasslands for its future. Virtually all these grasslands are grazed, at least at some point