Tools for Better Decision Making: Bridges from Science to Policy - Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems - page 268

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Urban
Woodland
Idle
Other arable
Cereal
Grassland

Current B2 2050

Figure 11.1 Current land-use distribution and projected distribution at 2050 under B2
climate scenario from CLUAM.

300,000

250,000

200,000

Dairy
Beef
Sheep

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

Current B2 2050

Figure 11.2 Current livestock numbers and projected numbers at 2050 under B2
climate scenario from CLUAM.

In the scenario runs, the CLUAM is driven by the price, demand and technology
changes projected by the two global futures (A2 and B2) for both 2020 and 2050,
both with and without the HadCM3 climate change projections. However, in the
case of the climate change runs, the model is also constrained by the impact of
changes to local growing conditions. These local climate changes can have both
positive and negative effects, making some areas unsuitable for production of
some crops, while making production of 'novel' crops suitable in other areas. For
example, lower autumn rainfall levels may make planting of winter cereals
difficult in some regions, while a longer and drier summer growing season may
make production of crops like grain maize feasible in others.
Figures 11.1 and 11.2 show current land use, as reported in the UK Agricultural
census (Defra 2004), and the predicted land use and livestock numbers from the
CLUAM in 2050 under the B2 climate scenario. These data provide the inputs to
the INCA-N model required to predict the outcome of the direct environmental