Operational Diagnostics, Estimation of the Scale of Damage and Aftermath Reduction of the Stressful Natural Processes - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 790

If both these factors are really substantial, the conclusion suggests itself that an
agreement of the results of the global climate numerical modeling is accidental (in
fact, the matter concerns the global mean annual mean SAT).
In this connection, Pielke (2001a, b, 2002) discussed information which con-

cance of both these climate-forming factors and expresses his
opinion about possibilities to check the basis for this conclusion. For this purpose
data can be used on the impact of anthropogenic changes of land surface charac-
teristics on local, regional and global climate, which illustrate the fact that this
impact is also should be taken into account, like the impact of CO 2 doubling in the
atmosphere (as well as an increase of other GHGs concentrations). Also important
is the fact that the atmosphere-surface interaction is characterized by the presence of
various non-linear feedbacks, and therefore it can be impossible to predict a climate
change for periods longer than a season.
As for potential biological impacts of CO 2 concentration growth, they are
manifested through short-range (biophysical), middle-range (biogeochemical), and
long-range (biogeographical) impacts of landscape-forming processes on weather
and climate. The biophysical impact includes, for instance, the effect of transpira-
tion on relationship of latent and sensible heat

firms the signi

fluxes as surface heat balance
components. Biogeochemical impacts include the effect of the growth of plants
(

fl

“ ”

) on the leaf area index, from which evaporation takes place, on
surface albedo, and carbon supply. One of manifestations of biogeographical
impacts is a change in time of the species composition of plant communities.
Numerical modeling results indicate that without consideration of biophysical/
biogeochemical impacts, an assessment of climate change cannot be reliable
(Bounoua et al. 2002).
Further development of climate models should contain, in particular, a consid-
eration of the following aspects of climate formation:

fertilization effect

(1) direct and indirect impacts of landscapes dynamics through biophysical,
biogeochemical, and biogeographical processes;
(2) consideration of anthropogenic changes of land use on various (local, regional,
and global) spatial-temporal scales; and
(3) assessment of possibilities of climate forecasts for longer periods than a sea-
son, bearing in mind the functioning of numerous non-linear feedbacks which
determine the atmosphere-surface interaction.

cance of the IPCC-
2001 Report and the US National Report as containing only an assessment of global
climate sensitivity to changes of some climate-forming factors.
In the long process of preparation of the three published already IPCC Reports
(Houghton 2003, 2004), more and more complete analyses of climate-forming
factors (e.g., apart from GHGs, atmospheric aerosols have been considered) and
various feedbacks have been carried out. But nevertheless, the available very
complicated numerical climate models cannot be considered suf

The openness of these and other problems reduced the signi

ciently adequate
from the viewpoint of consideration of all substantial climate-forming factors. A
new step forward in the IPCC-2001 Report was a consideration of the forcing F of