Operational Diagnostics, Estimation of the Scale of Damage and Aftermath Reduction of the Stressful Natural Processes - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 773

of time and calculated in accordance with dependences included in the base of
knowledge. For instance, the equation of the oxygen balance is written in the form:

dO i ðÞ= dt ¼ f 1 f 2 f 3 f 4 f 5 ;

where O i is the concentration of oxygen in the water of the i-th section of the sea; f 1
is the input of oxygen into the i-th section; f 2 is the oxygen consumption by bottom
sediments; f 3 is the oxygen expenditure on respiration of benthos animals; f 4 is the
oxygen expenditure on oxidation of organic matter; f 5 is the loss of oxygen on
decomposition of pollutants. The simulation procedure, which foresees a digitiza-
tion of the sea area into non-intersecting zones (sections), provides a correlation of
the functions Oi i (t) through exchange

uxes between these zones.
Another example of the simulation model is the model of the aqua-geosystem of
the Aral Sea basin. In contrast to the Sea of Azov, here the scales are greater and the
information supply is smaller. There is also a considerable difference in the inter-
action of natural and anthropogenic factors. During the last decades, the remote
monitoring systems have become the main source of observed data (Krapivin and
Phillips 2001a).
The development of irrigation world, the respective complex of hydrotechnical
measures, as well as secondary processes-consequences have substantially changed
and continue to change the natural, economic and ecological situations in some
regions of the Middle Asia. On this basis, the development and introduction of the
simulation technology, as applied to the EES analysis in conditions of arid climate,
have become one of the acceptable approaches to develop the management strategy
and a complex of optimization measures in the NSS.
The conceptual models listed in Table 9.21 re

fl

ect the basic mechanisms and
trends of the change of the natural situation in the Aral basin in 1960

fl

− 1980 with a

suf ow if river waters into the Aral Sea and

degradation of the natural-economic situation in this region. The situations in other
regions are suf

ciently negative result — ceasing in fl

ciently problematic (the Tashaus and Khoresm oases, Sarakamysh,
the zone of Kara-Kum canal, etc.). It follows from these schemes, in particular, that
the water component in the Middle Asia region has been and remains the leading
object of studies, prediction and optimization(management) Table 9.22 .
On the whole, the system of units of a general model simulation of the current

natural-economic situation in the region is as follows. It includes the units: water
component, salts, ecological situation, economic load, macro- and meso-climatic
background, mass- and energy-exchange at inputs

—

— outputs, direct couplings and

feedbacks (Kojima 1998).
Here is a general scheme of the distribution of water in the complex of aqua-
geosystems

“ Amu Darya river — Kara Kum canal — Aral Sea — Sarakamysh ” .

Receipt (input) flowing off at

the station of the Kara Kum Canal (R 0 ). Expenditure: (a) water scoop into canal
(R 1 ), discharge of collector waters into Sarakamysh (R 2 ), watering (R j ), in

— precipitation onto the territory (X) + the Amu Darya fl

fl ow to

the Aral Sea (R 3 ), out ow from Syr Darya (R S ); (b) accumulation in water reser-

voirs, except Sarakamysh (R acc —

fl

as the sum of dynamic, R d , and non-operated