Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
introduced the notion of
“
safety culture
”
which re
fl
ects the code of conduct, morals,
and emotional response to cataclysms.
Risk, as a measure of danger evaluated with numerous factors taken into
account, can serve as a guiding line to resolve the problem of control of a set of
potential factors that can disturb the human habitat and to change conditions for the
functioning of the society. Risk is a more capacious notion compared to probability
of a natural disaster. It includes a probability of an unfavourable event and the
volume of the resulting losses. In other words, risk re
ects a measure of danger of a
natural phenomenon including estimates of the levels of adversity for different
aspects. At the same time, risk has also a subjective constituent which is measured
with the help of formal methods of decision making, taking into account an intuitive
assessment of the situation and psychological norms of perception of the envi-
ronment. Many problems are resolved at the level of acceptance of legislative acts,
which re
fl
ect general principles of danger assessment.
On the whole, the notion of risk covers its various sections characterizing the
components of probability of an unfavourable change of conditions of people
fl
s
existence, including natural, economic, social, cultural, and religious factors. Each
of these sections is a complex of non-linear functions of a multitude of NSS
parameters, prediction of whose changes is the subject of the current global change
science. Here of importance are economic levers of the control of the processes of
NSS development. The relationship between economy, natural resources, and
energy in many respects determines the direction of global processes development.
In that sense, the main problem of humankind consists in a search of a compromise
between increasing needs of the growing
'
and nature having
limited food and energy resources. On this way, humankind has turned out to be at
the crossroads between the strategy of globalization and regional control. As seen
from IEA (2013a, b), the level of risk to obtain an unfavourable direction of
development for many poor countries remains suf
“
consumption society
”
ciently high due to the presence
in the strategy of developed countries of an element of appropriation of excessive
resources. Therefore, the problem of inclusion of a country or a region into the
process of globalization is important from the viewpoint of evaluation of the risk of
consequences. The index of globalization used for the evaluation of this risk and
including variables, which characterize the level of economic integration, devel-
opment of technologies, political aspects and openness of the society for infor-
mation contacts does not foresee any free transmission of excessive resources from
one country to another. As of the year 2004 62 countries with population consti-
tuting 84 % of the global size, covered 96 % of the global GDP. And it would be
natural to render assistance to other countries to achieve the index of development
corresponding to the annual energy consumption 5 t of oil equivalent per head. By
2020, the emerging economies will account for around 50 % of the world economy.
By then, two-thirds of global GDP growth will be generated in those countries.
Many experts assess differently the risk of globalization strategy realization in
developed countries. Lomborg (2001, 2004) explains how the
“
environmental
myths
originate and propagate in order to achieve political goals by intimidating
the population with coming catastrophes. As a result, a discussion of important
”
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