Operational Diagnostics, Estimation of the Scale of Damage and Aftermath Reduction of the Stressful Natural Processes - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 741

Nevertheless, when considering the perspectives of life on the Earth, it is nec-
essary to proceed from common criteria of evaluation of the levels of degradation of
the environment, since in time, local and regional changes in the environment
transform into global. The amplitudes of these changes are determined by mech-
anisms of NSS functioning, which ensure the optimal changes of its elements.
Humankind deviates more and more from this optimality in its strategy of inter-
action with the surrounding abiotic, and biotic components of the natural envi-
ronment. But at the same time, the human society as an NSS element, tries to
understand the character of large-scale relationships with nature, applying many
sciences and studying the cause-and-effect connections in this system. One of such
cause-and-effect connections is a correlation of El Ni ñ of with the ozone layer. El

Ni o refers to natural phenomena directly related to natural disasters taking place in

the equatorial sector of the East Paci

ñ

c. It is a complex of interrelated variations of
chemical and thermobaric parameters of the atmosphere and ocean. The anomalous
character of natural processes called El Ni of and observed mainly near the shore of

Peru and Chili, is manifested via a sharp increase of water temperature, air pressure
decrease in the Paci

ñ

fluxes direction. All this takes
place over one of the most active parts of the world source of degassing

c and a substantial change of air fl

—

the East-

ñ

Paci c elevation. The mechanism of El Ni of occurrence is as follows. Hydrogen,

' '

rising from the ocean s surface, and due

to heat release in the reaction with oxygen warms the water of the upper photic
layer. As a result, the CO 2 solubility decreases, and its

s bottom of the rift zone, reaches the ocean

flux from the ocean to the
atmosphere increases. From the estimates of Monin and Shishkov (1991), during
the 1982

fl

o the atmosphere got 6,000 Tg CO 2 . Besides, water evaporation
increases, which, together with CO 2 , enhances the greenhouse effect. The heating of
water leads to the origin of typhoons, a decrease of atmospheric pressure, and
breaking the standard trade-wind scheme of atmospheric dynamics. All these
changes trigger feedbacks that restore the equilibrium of natural processes. One of
the important regulators here is the ozone layer whose depletion during El Ni

− 83 El Ni ñ

o
leads to an increase of the temperature gradient between the equatorial and southern
c\sectors of the Paci

ñ

c.

habitat is a complicated dynamic system. Its temporal stability is
connected with the constancy of the structure, material composition and energy
balance, as well as with stability of its response to the same external forcings. The
system

The humans '

s stability can be broken due to the impact of both passive and active
external forces. In other words, under present conditions, the nature N and human
society H being a single planetary system and having hierarchical structures
( j ;

'

j ), interact, each with the aims of its own ( N , H ). From the formal point of
view, this interaction can be considered as a random process (x, t) with the

distribution law unknown, representing the level of tension in relationships between
subsystems N and H or assessing the state of one of them. Here x ¼

ʷ

x 1 ; ...;

x f g is a
set of identifying characteristics of subsystems N and H, which are the components
of a possible indicator of the origin of natural disaster, that is, a deviation of
ʷ (x, t) beyond the limits, where the state of the subsystem N threatens the sub-

system H. It follows from this that the aims and behavior of subsystems N and H