Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
The development of constructive methods of prediction of natural disasters
requires solution of a number of problems, including:
Adaptation of methods of ecoinformatics as applied to the problem of diag-
nostics and prediction of natural disasters in all their diversity and scales.
Formation of statistical characteristics of natural disasters in their historical
aspects, separation of categories and determination of spatial and temporal
scales of catastrophic changes in the environment. An analysis of the history of
disasters is important for understanding the present dependences between crises
in nature and society. Statistical characteristics of natural disasters in their
dynamics enable one to formulate basic principles of mathematical theory of
catastrophes and to determine the
first-priority directions of studies.
Development of concept and synthesis of the survivability model to use it for
evaluation of the impact of natural disasters on the humans
'
habitat.
Study of the laws of interactions between various elements and processes in the
global NSS in correlation with the notion of biological complexity (biocom-
plexity) of ecosystems, considering it as a function of biological, physical,
chemical, social, and behavioural interactions of sub-systems of the environ-
ment, including living organisms and their communities. The notion of bio-
complexity correlates with the laws of biospheric functioning as a unity of the
ecosystems of different scales (from local to global). In this connection, it is
necessary to give a combined formalized description of biological, geochemical,
geophysical, and anthropogenic factors and processes taking place at different
levels of the spatial-temporal hierarchy of scales. It is important to assess the
possibility to use biocomplexity in the form of an indicator of an approaching
natural disaster.
Study of correlations between survivability, biocomplexity, and evolution of
NSS with the use of global modelling technology. Creation of the units for the
global model, which describes the laws and trends in the environment that lead
to an appearance of stress situations and are initiated by man
'
s economic and
political activity.
Consideration of demographic conditions for the origin of natural disasters and
revelation of mechanisms for regulation of the environment, which hamper the
formation of these conditions.
Assessment of the information content of the existing technical means of col-
lection of data on the state of NSS sub-systems and available global data bases
in order to allocate them in solving the problems of evaluation of conditions for
the origin of stress situation in the environment.
As Walker (2003) noted, the de
nition of a natural disaster is rather vague, and
its de
ned a
natural disaster as an extreme and catastrophic situation in population viability
caused by substantial unfavourable changes in the environment or
nition depends on many factors. Grigoryev and Kondratyev (2001) de
“
as a spasmodic
change in the system in the form of its sudden response to smooth changes in
external conditions
. The amount of such critical situations in the environment
increases. For instance, if before 1990 during the preceding 30 years, only in 1973
”
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