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Fig. 8.15 An example of spatial distribution reconstruction for the wild re dangerous probability
basing on the soil and forest litter moisture in their dynamics in village Nikolovo (Bulgaria). Time
dynamic of the wild re dangerous is characterized by the conditions: a heavy precipitation, b one
day later, c two days later, and d four days later
8.4.2 Wild
res, Dynamics of the Biosphere, and Climate
Poorly studied positive and negative feedbacks of forest
fires makes it impossible to
draw the
final conclusions about their role in the global eco-dynamics. Positive
feedbacks mentioned above can be supplemented with facts indicating the opposite
post-
'
dynamics. Numerous results of numerical
modeling show that the tropical deforestation results in changes of albedo, land
surface roughness, leaf area index, and root zone depth, which lead to a decrease of
rain rate and relative humidity, but to an increase of SAT and wind speed. Global
consequences of such changes will depend on the ratio of scales of reduction of
forest areas and measures taken to protect nature. Preliminary results of modeling
these consequences obtained by Hoffmann et al. (2003), with the use of the
atmospheric general circulation model, CCM 3.2, and data of remote sensing,
revealed a decrease of rains and relative humidity during the
re trends in the ecosystems
fires in the Amazon
basin. The empirical connection between the scales of deserti
cation in the regions
of Amazon, Congo, and Indonesia and the frequency of forest
fires, established
from the NOAA-12 satellite measurements, revealed a dependence of the index of
the
fires directly
affect a climate change, which leads to a change of their frequency of occurrence.
This interactivity makes it possible to search a regime of forests regulation which
fire risk of the territory on their frequency. This means that forest
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