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phase. To a great extent this is explained by inadequate complex information about
the ecosystems and their functioning. So, for instance, the problem of the global
carbon cycle attracts serious attention since long ago. Nevertheless, even the system
requirements have not been formulated yet for complex observational data, which
would make it possible to also obtain adequate information about the laws of the
carbon cycle (of course, this requires a combined use of both usual and satellite
means of observations).
In this connection, UN Secretary-General Kofi
A. Annan justly noted:
“
It is
impossible to justify an ef
cient ecological policy if it is not based on reliable
scienti
c information. Though in many spheres a considerable progress has been
reached in obtaining the observational data, there remain considerable gaps in our
knowledge. In particular, so far, no complete global assessment has been obtained
for the state of the main ecosystems existing over the globe. A response to this
necessity was the planned (Millennium Ecosystems Assessment
—
MEA), as an
important international initiative aimed at mapping the
of our planet (Lu
and Li 2003). This initiative has been backed by many Governments, as well as by
UNEP, UNDP, FAO, and UNESCO. I call upon the Governments
“
health
”
—
UN members
to give the needed
financial support in assessing the state of ecosystems for the last
Millennium and take an active part in the program
”
.
An implementation of the MEA program started in 2001 is only a
rst step
towards an assessment of the state of the global ecosystems, as well as development
and realization of measures needed to preserve the ecosystems on the planet when
the need for natural resources grows. On the other hand, there came up an acute
problem to preserve not simply the quality of the environment but normal func-
tioning of the life-supporting systems on the Earth, without which further devel-
opment of civilization is impossible.
8.3 Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics
8.3.1 General Approach to the Modeling in Biocoenology
Numerical biocoenology has become an independent scienti
c direction due to
many authors who combined in their studies the potentials of ecology and
numerical modeling (Krapivin and Kelley 2009; Degermendzhy et al. 2009). This
combination has resulted in many principles of traditional ecology being re-ori-
ented, creating a kind of information interface between ecology and other sciences
and evaluating the role played by complex interdisciplinary studies. The sphere of
interests of this new direction includes the problems of complexity and generality in
the development of the ecological laws.
The recently developed models cover the problems such as a parameterization
of the vegetation covers succession, description of the production process as a
function of the environmental factors (Wirtz 2000), modeling the competition for
common resources (Alekseev et al. 1992), modeling the natural-anthropogenic
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