Tropical Cyclogenesis and Ecoinformatics Methods - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 622

the fl flow variation of galactic cosmic rays and variations of vertical temperature

pro C at the

altitude 16 km was detected in the case of Hurricane Katrina as a result of a higher
high-altitude gradient of the temperature being formed and the intensi

le of the atmosphere. In particular, decrease of the temperature by 9 °

cation of the
convention taken place. As a result, the warmer atmospheric layers begin to lift up,
causing a temperature rise by 2 ° C at the latitudes 5 14 km. This result con rms the

-

theoretical conclusions received by Sharkov (2003).
There exists the opinion that common global warming stimulates such changes
in the atmosphere circulation that promote to the intensi

cation of tropical hurri-
canes. This opinion becomes stronger in connection with 2005 hurricane season
when storms and hurricanes raged at the tropical latitudes. In fact, tropical hurri-
canes of 2005 season functioned as giant heat engines. It was established that
intensity and duration of tropical cyclones during the last 30 years in the North
Atlantic and Western North Paci c were doubled. In connection with this, we can

make the conclusion that the search of the indicator-precursors is realized by means
of the analysis of the relationships in the global climate system functioning. Under
this complex and unstable climate models can not be used. Searching stable cor-
relations in global climate system can be solution of this problem. There is a
demonstrative example of the solution of particular task related to the forecasting of
tropical cyclone motion using a baroclinic model (Zhou and Chen 2006). was
According to Tang et al. (2005) the Boolean algebra algorithm which is widely used
for market basket analysis can be used to analyze the meteorological data sets
characterizing OAS in the zones of possible tropical hurricanes beginning. This
algorithm consists in the formation of binary set that is based on the wind speed
analysis.
Dynamic processes conducting natural phenomena proceed by complex laws
that are not studied a lot as a rule. Nevertheless, there exists the ensemble of
methods which we can mention: the method of Fourier rapid transformation, the
method of maximal entropy, the method of quasi linearization, the method of
evolutionary modeling, the method of harmonic functions, etc. An application of
these methods to search the relationships in the series of meteorological, geo-
physical and ecological data that characterize the zones where tropical hurricanes
arose selecting the time periods that forewent the hurricane beginning can be
productive. In particular, a detection of the speci c features in the natural processes

within the OAS before the tropical hurricane beginning can give mechanism for the
early detection of the moment when OAS will pass from storm state to the phase of
hurricane of the

first category. Some experience of the solution to problems arising
here is given in the publications by Kondratyev and Krapivin (2005b, 2006),
Krapivin and Potapov (2002, 2006a, b), Potapov et al. (2006), Sukov et al. (2008a),
Grankov et al. (2006), Kondratyev et al. (2006a, b), and Soldatov (2007). This
experience is based on the methods for the analysis of unstable processes, and it is
undertaken as one of the possible approaches to the creation of constructive
algorithms for early detection of the zones where tropical hurricanes could begin.
The history contains rich information about natural disasters which are now
called tropical cyclones and which are mainly formed over the oceans in the tropics,